Canada's Population Projections: A Shift Towards Aging and the Need for Immigration

Strategic Insights -

Canada's population is projected to experience significant growth over the next 50 years, driven primarily by immigration. According to Statistics Canada, the country's population could reach 63 million by 2073, with some scenarios predicting a population as low as 47.1 million or as high as 87.2 million. This growth is expected to be driven by an influx of permanent and temporary immigrants, with Canada accepting a record 1.13 million immigrants in 2022-23, nearly 500,000 more than the previous year.

Key Takeaways:

  • Canada's population is projected to grow significantly over the next 50 years, with a potential increase of up to 87.2 million people by 2073.
  • Immigration will play a crucial role in driving population growth, with a record 1.13 million immigrants accepted in 2022-23.
  • The proportion of older adults in Canada is expected to rise dramatically, with a projected increase from 18.9% in 2023 to between 21.9% and 32.3% by 2073.
  • The population aged 85 and older will increase rapidly, tripling from 896,600 in 2023 to between 3.3 million and 4.3 million by 2073.
  • Provincial and territorial populations will also see notable shifts, with some areas expected to decline while others experience growth.
  • Developing tailored regional policies to address specific demographic trends is crucial for balanced national growth.
  • Immigration is the most effective way to counterbalance natural decrease and support economic growth, and Canada can use population projections to refine its immigration policies.

Statistics:

  • Canada's population could reach 63 million by 2073, with some scenarios predicting a population as low as 47.1 million or as high as 87.2 million.
  • The proportion of older adults in Canada will increase from 18.9% in 2023 to between 21.9% and 32.3% by 2073.
  • The population aged 85 and older will increase from 896,600 in 2023 to between 3.3 million and 4.3 million by 2073.
  • Canada accepted a record 1.13 million immigrants in 2022-23, nearly 500,000 more than the previous year.
  • The foreign-born labour force in America is 9% higher than at the start of 2019.
  • More than eight million immigrants with permanent residence lived in Canada as of 2022, accounting for 20% of the country's total population.

Sources:

  • Statistics Canada, "Population Projections in Canada, 2023 to 2073" (June 24, 2024)
  • Reuters, "Canada's immigration surge strains public services, says expert" (2023)
  • Statista, "Number of permanent residents in Canada as of 2022" (2022)
  • IMF, "Foreign-born labor force in the United States" (no date provided)