Israel's Gaza Campaign: A Long and Bloody Path to Somewhere

Strategic Insights -

As the conflict in Gaza enters a new phase, Palestinians and Israelis alike fear that the war will descend into a long period of insurgency-style warfare and indefinite occupation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that the war will continue until Israel achieves "total victory", which he defines as the complete eradication of Hamas as a civilian and military entity. However, nine months into the campaign, several of the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) declared objectives remain unfulfilled and new fighting continues to erupt in areas supposedly under Israeli military control.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israel's generals are expected to announce the end of the main ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, but the war will continue until Israel achieves "total victory", a term defined by Netanyahu as the complete eradication of Hamas as a civilian and military entity.
  • The Israeli government has yet to release details of its postwar proposals for Gaza, with one observer describing them as "fantasies" and another fearing that Netanyahu is trying to "buy time".
  • Two army divisions will remain in Gaza in the third part of Israel's war plan, with the task of launching frequent raids on suspected Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets across Gaza.
  • The buffer zone between the separation fence and Israel proper is expected to expand to at least two-thirds of a mile (1km) in depth across the entire territory, totaling 32% of the territory.
  • Initial US-backed plans to bring the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority back to govern Gaza after its controlling Fatah faction was kicked out of Gaza by Hamas in 2007 appear to have stalled.
  • Israel is instead on the verge of reimplementing a failed plan to have "bubbles" run by local people, such as respected elders, with no ties to Hamas, administer the distribution of aid and civilian governance.
  • Palestinian experts believe that Israel's decision makers need to commit to controlling the entirety of Gaza for the foreseeable future, or be prepared to make a painful deal to end the war, in which it is most likely Hamas will remain in power in the strip.
  • The Gaza Strip's agricultural land, which is insufficient to meet the needs of its 2.3 million residents, will be further reduced with the expansion of the buffer zone and the two corridors of land expropriated for military use.

Statistics:

  • 32% of the Gaza Strip territory may be taken up by the buffer zone and the two corridors of land expropriated for military use (Gisha analysis of satellite imagery).
  • 2.3 million residents of the Gaza Strip will be further displaced and suffocated by the loss of agricultural land, which is insufficient to meet their needs.
  • 18 years have passed since the last Palestinian Authority elections, leaving the authority without political legitimacy.
  • 9 months have passed since the start of the conflict, with several of the IDF's declared objectives remaining unfulfilled.

Sources:

  • Bethan McKernan in Jerusalem
  • The Financial Times
  • Gisha (a nonprofit organisation focused on Palestinians' right to freedom of movement)
  • Tel Aviv University's Palestinian studies forum
  • Ramallah-based political analyst and commentator Nour Odeh