Ukraine's Mayor Suggests Territorial Compromise with Russia, Analysts Disagree

Strategic Insights -

Ukrainian Mayor Vitali Klitschko has sparked debate with comments suggesting that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might have to consider territorial compromises with Russia to end the war. Analysts believe this move is a domestic political exercise to test the population's reaction and accumulate "political dividends" for Klitschko. However, experts say that territorial concessions would not only be painful for Ukraine but also for the rest of Europe, creating unresolved issues and setting a global precedent.

Key Takeaways:

  • Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, suggested that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might have to consider territorial compromises with Russia to end the war.
  • Analysts believe Klitschko's comments are a domestic political exercise to test the population's reaction and accumulate "political dividends" for himself.
  • Territorial concessions would be painful for Ukraine and create unresolved issues in Europe.
  • A majority of Ukrainians (55%) are against any territorial concessions to Russia, according to a study published on July 23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
  • Between May 2022 and May 2023, 82% to 87% of Ukrainians were against territorial concessions, with only around 8% to 10% prepared to make them.
  • A poll in May showed that 32% of Ukrainians would be willing to make concessions to achieve peace quickly, compared to around 10% in May 2022.
  • Territorial concessions would set a global precedent for authoritarian leaders to illegally take territory.
  • Ukraine's Western allies would be loath to have the country give up territory due to the unresolved issues it would create in Europe.

Statistics:

  • 55% of Ukrainians are against any territorial concessions to Russia, according to a study published on July 23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
  • 32% of Ukrainians would be willing to make concessions to achieve peace quickly, compared to around 10% in May 2022.
  • 82% to 87% of Ukrainians were against territorial concessions between May 2022 and May 2023.
  • 8% to 10% of Ukrainians were prepared to make territorial concessions between May 2022 and May 2023.

Sources:

  • Corriere della Sera interview with Vitali Klitschko
  • Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center for Political Studies in Kyiv
  • Roger Hilton, analyst with the international think tank GLOBSEC
  • Study published on July 23 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
  • Poll in May 2023
  • Viktor Orban's visit to Vladimir Putin (source: Viktor Orban's statement)
  • Boris Johnson's column in the British Daily Mail (source: Boris Johnson's column)