Australia's Bird Flu Risk: A Low but Pressing Threat

Strategic Insights -

As tens of thousands of seabirds swoop and squawk around us on Lord Howe Island, wildlife experts are sounding the alarm on the potential arrival of the deadly bird flu strain, H5N1. The virus, which has caused havoc in wild bird populations across the globe, may arrive in Australia this spring, posing a significant risk to the country's native bird species. While the risk is considered low, Australia remains the only continent in the world free from the strain, and experts warn that the country's ecological value and geographic isolation may make it more vulnerable to an outbreak.

Key Takeaways:

  • Australia is the only continent in the world free from the deadly bird flu strain, H5N1, which has caused over 400 human deaths and over 900 cases since 2003.
  • The risk of H5N1 arriving in Australia this spring is considered "moderate", with returning migratory birds potentially carrying the virus.
  • A study released last year found that an outbreak of the H5N1 variant would put the Australian black swan in "significant peril".
  • Australia's lack of funding for research on the effect of H5N1 on endemic bird species has left the country ill-prepared for a potential outbreak.
  • Educating communities who live near migratory bird nesting sites about the signs of avian influenza, surveillance, and early reporting are critical to stomping out an outbreak.

Statistics:

  • Over 400 human deaths and over 900 cases of H5N1 bird flu have been reported worldwide since 2003.
  • The virus has killed an estimated 650,000 native birds, 30,000 sea lions, and 17,000 southern elephant seal pups in South America since late 2022.
  • A study found that an outbreak of the H5N1 variant would put the Australian black swan in "significant peril".
  • $7 million was allocated in July to bolster Australia's defences against the H5N1 variant.
  • The H5N1 strain has shown the ability to infect a wide range of wild birds, increasing the chance of introduction via a "bridging" species.

Sources:

  • Nicholas Carlile, a seabird specialist, saying there's a "very remote" possibility of a H5N1 outbreak on Lord Howe Island.
  • Dr Michelle Wille, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Pathogen Genomics at the University of Melbourne, saying the prospect of the strain reaching Australia in the future is a matter of "when, not if".
  • Darryl Birch, head of biosecurity on Lord Howe Island, saying the risk of the virus arriving is "low".
  • Dr Frank Wong, a senior scientist at the CSIRO's Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness, saying the chance of H5N1 reaching Australia is "relatively low".
  • Jack Gough, advocacy director of the Invasive Species Council, saying an outbreak in Australia could result in a "wildlife massacre" of similar scale to the black summer bushfires.
  • Murray Watt, the then federal agricultural minister, saying the arrival of migratory birds means Australia faces a constant risk outside of its control.
  • The Chief Operating Officer of Wildlife Health Australia, Dr Tiggy Grillo, saying educating communities and surveillance are critical to stomping out an outbreak.