Tanzania: Country Outlook 2024-28

Strategic Insights -

Tanzania is expected to remain broadly politically stable over the forecast period under the leadership of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who enjoys strong backing from the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. The 2024-28 period will be marked by periodic short-lived protests ahead of local and legislative elections, but the ruling party is poised to deliver another strong electoral performance. Tanzania's good record of project implementation makes it a steady recipient of multilateral aid, and the country is set to benefit from ongoing IMF funding and climate financing deals. Economic growth is expected to accelerate, driven by the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project, while inflation will remain relatively low, averaging 3.5% in 2024.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tanzania will remain broadly politically stable over the 2024-28 forecast period under the leadership of President Samia Suluhu Hassan.
  • The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party is expected to deliver another strong electoral performance in 2024 and 2025.
  • Tanzania's good record of project implementation makes it a steady recipient of multilateral aid, with ongoing IMF funding and climate financing deals forecasted.
  • Economic growth is expected to accelerate, driven by the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project, with real GDP growth averaging 5.9% in 2024-26 and 6.7% in 2027-28.
  • Inflation will remain relatively low, averaging 3.5% in 2024, but is expected to rise to 4.2% in 2027-28 as growth quickens.
  • The Tanzanian shilling is expected to weaken further, from TSh2,504:US$1 at end-2023 to TSh2,733:US$1 at end-2024, driven by a widening current-account deficit.
  • The current-account deficit will remain stable at 3.7% of GDP in 2024, but is expected to widen in 2025-27, to an average of 4% of GDP a year.

Statistics:

  • Real GDP growth: 5.9% in 2024-26, 6.7% in 2027-28.
  • Inflation: 3.5% in 2024, 4.2% in 2027-28.
  • Exchange rate: TSh2,504:US$1 at end-2023, TSh2,733:US$1 at end-2024.
  • Current-account deficit: 3.7% of GDP in 2024, 4% of GDP in 2025-27.

Sources:

  • EIU Political Stability report
  • World Bank climate financing deal
  • IMF extended credit facility (ECF) arrangement
  • Tanzania National Assembly election results
  • Tanzania presidential election results