Tornado Watch Issued for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strategic Insights -

A tornado watch has been issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including Lake Superior. The watch is effective from Thursday afternoon and evening, from 505 PM CDT until 1100 PM CDT. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern Minnesota and track eastward across the watch area, posing a threat of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Isolated intense/supercells are possible, capable of producing severe weather.

Key Takeaways:

  • The tornado watch affects portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including Lake Superior.
  • The watch is effective from 505 PM CDT until 1100 PM CDT on Thursday.
  • Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeastern Minnesota and track eastward across the watch area.
  • Isolated intense/supercells are possible, capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
  • The tornado watch area is approximately 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Grand Marais MN to 85 miles south of Duluth MN.
  • Aviation winds can be expected with surface wind gusts to 60 knots and aviation hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter.
  • PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS: Persons in the watch area should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • Tornadoes are possible with a probability of 2 or more tornadoes (30%) and 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes (10%).
  • Severe wind events are possible with a probability of 10 or more severe wind events (40%) and 1 or more wind events 65 knots (20%).
  • Severe hail events are possible with a probability of 10 or more severe hail events (40%) and 1 or more hailstones 2 inches (10%).

Statistics:

  • The watch is effective from 505 PM CDT until 1100 PM CDT on Thursday.
  • The tornado watch area covers approximately 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Grand Marais MN to 85 miles south of Duluth MN.
  • Aviation winds can be expected with surface wind gusts to 60 knots.
  • The probability of 2 or more tornadoes is 30%.
  • The probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is 10%.
  • The probability of 10 or more severe wind events is 40%.
  • The probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots is 20%.
  • The probability of 10 or more severe hail events is 40%.
  • The probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches is 10%.

Sources:

  • NWS Storm Prediction Center (Norman OK)
  • MIL OSI USA News (http://milnz.co.nz/mil-osi-aggregation/) - Copyright 2024 Multimedia Investments Ltd, distributed by Contify.com