Category 4 Storm Helene Brings Destruction and Flooding to the Southeastern Region

Strategic Insights -

By Thursday afternoon, storm winds and waves had already pushed significant amounts of water into streets along Florida's west coast, with over a million customers losing power in the state and thousands more in the Carolinas. The storm's eye touched down about 10 miles southwest of Florida's city of Perry, but its impacts will be felt by those hundreds of miles away from the storm's center. As of 6 p.m. Eastern time, the storm surge had risen to about 3.5 feet in Apalachicola, 4 feet in Naples, Fort Myers, and Cedar Key, and 4.5 feet in Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater. The National Hurricane Center called the anticipated surge "life-threatening," and "catastrophic and deadly." The storm's sheer size and strength will bring destruction to swaths of the Southeastern region, with extremely high winds, heavy rain, and potentially historic flooding expected.

Key Takeaways:

  • The storm surge, which began to rapidly increase as Helene drew closer to Florida's Big Bend, is expected to rise up to 15 feet or more, with life-threatening and catastrophic consequences.
  • The National Hurricane Center predicted up to 15 to 20 feet of surge between Carrabelle and the Suwannee River in the Big Bend, and 10 to 15 feet between Apalachicola and Carrabelle.
  • In Tampa, a surge of 5 to 8 feet is possible, which could challenge records.
  • The exceptionally broad and intense wind field will efficiently push water ashore, with the height of the ocean possibly rising higher than a one-story building above dry ground.
  • Forecasters stress the dire nature of the flood threat in western North Carolina, with up to a foot of rain already producing flooding and another 4 to 15 inches possible as the storm comes through.
  • The National Weather Service said flooding in Asheville, N.C. could be worse than several past storms, including Tropical Storm Fred in 2021 and the remnants of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan in 2004.
  • Tallahassee, near the center of Helene's predicted track, could endure heavy rain and strong winds, with extreme winds penetrating farther inland than with most storms.
  • The National Weather Service in Tallahassee warned that damaging or even destructive winds, severe flooding, and tornadoes are among the potential impacts, with power losses possible for days.
  • Atlanta is bracing for extreme winds and flooding, with sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph and gusts up to 70 mph expected on early Friday morning.

Statistics:

  • 3.5 feet of storm surge in Apalachicola as of 6 p.m. Eastern time
  • 4 feet of storm surge in Naples, Fort Myers, and Cedar Key as of 6 p.m. Eastern time
  • 4.5 feet of storm surge in Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater as of 6 p.m. Eastern time
  • 15 to 20 feet of surge possible between Carrabelle and the Suwannee River in the Big Bend
  • 10 to 15 feet of surge possible between Apalachicola and Carrabelle
  • 5 to 8 feet of surge possible in Tampa
  • 3 to 5 feet of surge possible in parts of the Everglades to Fort Myers
  • 4 to 7 feet of surge possible in the north
  • 8 feet or more of surge possible between the north side of Tampa and the Big Bend
  • Up to 70 mph gusts possible in Atlanta on early Friday morning
  • 4 to 7 inches of additional rain expected in Atlanta through Friday morning
  • 3 inches of rain already fallen in Atlanta since Wednesday afternoon

Sources:

  • National Hurricane Center
  • National Weather Service office serving western North Carolina
  • National Weather Service office serving Tallahassee
  • National Weather Service office serving Atlanta