Intelligence Agencies Warn of Potential Russian Retaliation over Ukraine Missile Request

Strategic Insights -

U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that granting Ukraine's request to use Western missiles against targets deep in Russia could prompt forceful retaliation, while not fundamentally changing the course of the war. The assessment, which has not been previously reported, highlights the potential risk and uncertain rewards of a high-stakes decision that now rests with President Biden, who met with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House on Thursday. The intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia.

Key Takeaways:

  • U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia.
  • The assessment highlights the potential risk and uncertain rewards of a high-stakes decision that now rests with President Biden.
  • U.S. officials say it remains unclear what Mr. Biden will decide to do regarding Ukraine's request to use Western missiles against targets deep in Russia.
  • The intelligence assessment describes a range of possible Russian responses to a decision to allow long-range strikes using U.S. and European-supplied missiles, including stepped up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe.
  • The G.R.U., Russia's military intelligence agency, has been responsible for most of the acts of sabotage in Europe that have taken place thus far.
  • If Mr. Putin decides to expand the shadowy campaign in response to the use of U.S. and European missiles deep inside Russia, U.S. officials believe the Russians will continue to do so covertly, rather than conduct overt attacks on U.S. and European facilities and bases.
  • A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment on the assessment, and a spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
  • The United States and its coalition partners have provided the Ukrainians with three types of long-range missile systems: American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), British-made Storm Shadow missiles, and French-supplied SCALP missiles.

Statistics:

  • 190 miles: The maximum distance U.S. officials say the Ukrainians are willing to target Russian military targets inside Russia.
  • 3 types: The long-range missile systems provided by the United States and its coalition partners to Ukraine: ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP missiles.
  • Limited supply: U.S. military officials say they have a limited supply of ATACMS missiles and need to keep a reserve for potential military needs.
  • 2014: The year Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula.

Sources:

  • U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters and internal deliberations.
  • White House spokesman, who did not respond to a request for comment on the assessment.
  • Spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who declined to comment.