Russia May Escalate Force Against US and Allies if Washington Approves Long-Range Strikes Against Russia

Strategic Insights -

American intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia may respond with greater force by targeting the United States and its coalition partners if Washington gives the green light for Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia, using Western-supplied weapons. According to unnamed U.S. officials, Russia is likely to retaliate against the U.S. and its allies if they agree to allow the Ukrainians to use long-range missiles provided by the USA, UK, and France for strikes deep inside Russia. This assessment may partly explain the difficulty President Joe Biden faces in making a decision on the matter, as he is under domestic pressure. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed optimism about his upcoming meeting with Biden, during which he intends to discuss the possibility of long-range strikes inside Russia.

Key Takeaways:

  • American intelligence agencies believe Russia may escalate force against the US and its coalition partners if Washington approves long-range strikes against Russia.
  • Russia is likely to retaliate against the US and its allies if they agree to allow the Ukrainians to use long-range missiles provided by the USA, UK, and France for strikes deep inside Russia.
  • The assessment suggests that President Joe Biden is struggling to make a decision on the matter due to domestic pressure.
  • President Volodymyr Zelensky intends to discuss the possibility of long-range strikes inside Russia with President Biden during their upcoming meeting.
  • The Ukrainian government currently has a limited number of long-range missiles, and it is unclear how many more their Western allies might provide.
  • Long-range missiles may have a limited impact on the war, according to the previously undisclosed intelligence assessment.
  • The assessment may have implications for the domestic politics of the US, as President Biden faces pressure to decide on the matter.
  • The decision on whether to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia is a watershed moment in the ongoing conflict.

Statistics:

  • $7.9B: The amount of aid package provided by the US to Ukraine (NYT).
  • Ukraine currently has a limited number of long-range missiles (NYT).
  • Unclear: The number of additional long-range missiles that Ukraine's Western allies may provide (NYT).
  • Limited: The impact of long-range missiles on the war, according to the intelligence assessment (NYT).

Sources:

  • NYT
  • Ukrinform