Avoiding the Abyss: An Urgent Need for Sino-U.S. Crisis Management

Strategic Insights -

Since the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, the United States and China have experienced nine major political-military crises, with lasting negative effects on U.S. security. The current U.S.-China crisis management infrastructure is critically deficient, and both sides seem incapable of undertaking necessary structural and procedural reforms to improve this capability. A comprehensive assessment is necessary to address the problems confronting Sino-U.S. crisis prevention and management.

Key Takeaways:

  • The United States and China have had nine major political-military crises since the establishment of the PRC in 1949, with the most recent crisis being the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-96 contributing to the Chinese military buildup of the past several decades.
  • The current U.S.-China crisis management infrastructure is critically deficient in carrying out the balancing act between achieving resolution without provocation and fostering accommodation without signaling weakness.
  • The paper recommends the establishment of permanent and semi-permanent working groups that would allow key U.S. and Chinese civilian and military officials to reach a common understanding and mutual confidence regarding U.S. and Chinese goals, intentions, and practices in a crisis.
  • The paper introduces new processes and mechanisms to help both sides avert and manage future bilateral crises and prevent them from spiraling into conflict.
  • Effective crisis management defuses acute crises between two countries while protecting the concerns of each party.
  • Both sides are currently incapable of undertaking necessary structural and procedural reforms to improve crisis management capabilities.

Statistics:

  • Since 1949, the United States and China have experienced nine major political-military crises.
  • The Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-96 had lasting negative effects on U.S. security, contributing to the Chinese military buildup of the past several decades.
  • The U.S.-China strategic competition is increasing the likelihood of a severe crisis occurring over any of the key issues between the two nations.
  • The current U.S.-China crisis management infrastructure is critically deficient in carrying out the balancing act between achieving resolution without provocation and fostering accommodation without signaling weakness.

Sources:

  • The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, "Avoiding the Abyss: An Urgent Need for Sino-U.S. Crisis Management" (white paper, No. 16, September 27, 2024)