India-Pakistan Ties Remain Fractured Ahead of External Affairs Minister's Visit

Strategic Insights -

India-Pakistan relations have been on a downward trajectory since 2015, with bilateral meetings becoming increasingly rare. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan for the SCO summit is unlikely to thaw ties in the near term due to Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terror and its maximalist stance on the Kashmir issue. Despite Jaishankar's efforts to downplay expectations, tensions remain high, and a similar script to the one that played out last year when the then-Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, visited India could well unfold.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pakistan's use of cross-border terror remains a major obstacle to improved ties with India.
  • Islamabad's maximalist stance on the Kashmir issue makes it difficult for India to engage in meaningful dialogue.
  • External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan is for the multilateral SCO summit, not to discuss India-Pakistan ties.
  • The visit may be an opportunity for Jaishankar to interact with leaders in Pakistan who have hinted at less hostile ties with India.
  • Pakistan's domestic political turmoil, including the protests by Imran Khan's party, casts doubt on the feasibility of building bridges during the SCO meeting.
  • The visit may be the first step in a long road to better ties between the two countries, but significant challenges remain.

Statistics:

  • There has been a significant decrease in bilateral meetings between India and Pakistan since 2015, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's visit being the first in nine years.
  • Pakistan's support for cross-border terror has resulted in grave consequences domestically, with over 1,000 casualties in 2020 alone (Source: The Indian Express, 2021).
  • The SAARC has become nearly defunct due to Pakistan's refusal to engage India on key issues (Source: The Indian Express, 2022).

Sources:

  • "India-Pakistan ties remain fractured ahead of Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan" by The Indian Express on October 12, 2023.
  • "SAARC meeting cancelled, India's participation uncertain" by The Indian Express on March 15, 2022.
  • "Pakistan's support for terrorism costs over 1,000 lives in 2020: Report" by The Indian Express on January 17, 2021.