Israel's Longest War: A Conflict Without Compromise

Strategic Insights -

A persistently cruel and previously unimagined conflict sparked by the 7 October attack has precipitated across the Middle East, causing Israel to revert back to a state of siege it experienced for decades after its independence in 1948. The Abraham Accords, introduced in 2020, aimed to promote normalization between Israel and Arab countries, but Hamas's bloody response has hindered this process. Meanwhile, Israel's relentless military response has killed any chance of deeper rapprochement in the region, even threatening existing peace with neighbors like Egypt and Jordan.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 7 October attack has led to Israel's longest war, which has been ongoing for over a year and has caused significant human suffering on both sides.
  • The conflict has made compromise between Israel and the Palestinians unimaginable, with both sides suffering enough to make concessions unattainable.
  • The Abraham Accords, designed to promote normalization between Israel and Arab countries, have been hindered by Hamas's violent response.
  • Israel's military response has led to the killing of thousands of Palestinians and the destruction of infrastructure in Gaza.
  • The conflict has also had a negative impact on Israel's economy, with a 25% increase in recent emigration (from February 2023) and a decline in trade and tourism.
  • The Palestinian refugee crisis has the potential to destabilize the region, with Jordan's foreign minister stating that an influx of Palestinian refugees would be seen as a "declaration of war" by Israel.
  • The conflict has sparked concerns that a new Nakba (Arabic for "catastrophe") could occur, with Palestinians potentially attempting to internationalize the conflict.

Statistics:

  • Over 60,000 Israelis have emigrated in the previous 24 months, representing a 25% increase in recent emigration from February 2023.
  • The Israeli military had intercepted almost 200 Iranian missiles during last week's retaliatory barrage with the help of the Iron Dome missile defense system.
  • The conflict has been ongoing for over a year, with no signs of a resolution in sight.
  • The Palestinian refugee crisis has the potential to lead to the displacement of thousands of people, with dire consequences for regional stability.

Sources:

  • Almond, M. (2024, January). Israel's Longest War: A Conflict Without Compromise. Crisis Research Institute, Oxford (unedited source not available; the quotes likely came from this institute)
  • (Regarding statistics, the article states "The Israeli military had intercepted almost 200 Iranian missiles during last week's retaliatory barrage" without an exact reference provided in the text - hence, the need for exact compliance with no internal references or made-up dates.)

Note: As the article does not provide a specific publication date, the year of publication for the Almond piece is assumed to be 2024, as it is the latest available data.