Gaza Ceasefire Hopes Rise After Israel Kills Hamas Leader, but US Elections Cast Shadow on Prospects

Strategic Insights -

Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating for months, but the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israel has brought new hope for a Gaza ceasefire. US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have described the elimination of Sinwar as an opportunity to end a year of war, with Biden announcing that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to the Middle East. However, the upcoming US elections have cast a shadow on prospects for a breakthrough, as Netanyahu's shaky coalition relies on the extreme right and has repeatedly brushed aside pleas from Biden.

Key Takeaways:

  • The elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the unprecedented attack on Israel, could be used as a pretext for Israel to argue that it has achieved its objectives and it's time to move in a different direction, according to Andrew Miller, a former State Department official.
  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's relationship with the US has been complicated, particularly with Donald Trump, but his coalition has demonstrated a lack of interest in a ceasefire deal with Hamas.
  • A ceasefire deal would be a major win for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has promised support for Israel but faces critics from her party's left flank who say the administration has failed to pressure Netanyahu.
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken has sought to coax Netanyahu into a Gaza deal by dangling the prospect of normalization with Saudi Arabia.
  • A deal would aim to politically eliminate Hamas by excluding the militant group from reconstruction and governance and by shutting down smuggling networks from Egypt into Gaza.
  • The new leadership of Hamas is likely to be based in Qatar and more prone to "cashing in" on a deal, but their ability to produce change on the ground is limited.
  • Netanyahu has been "seemingly gambling on a Trump victory" by escalating the conflict with expectations of US support, according to Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

Statistics:

  • The Israeli military campaign in Gaza has been ongoing for a year, with the conflict escalating on October 7, 2023.
  • There are around 100 remaining hostages in Gaza, dozens of whom are confirmed dead.
  • The Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have lasted for weeks, with the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last month.
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition relies on the extreme right for support.
  • The UAE has already offered to send troops to a post-war Gaza.
  • Saudi Arabia's normalization with Israel would be a watershed moment in Israel's acceptance by the Arab and Muslim worlds.

Sources:

  • Andrew Miller, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress
  • Dennis Ross, veteran former US negotiator in the Middle East
  • Ghaith al-Omari, former Palestinian Authority advisor and current fellow at the Washington Institute
  • Sina Toossi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy
  • US Department of State
  • Washington Institute
  • Center for American Progress