Polio Cases in Pakistan Could Rise to 50 Amid Widespread Vaccination Reluctance

Strategic Insights -

Experts warn of a potential surge in polio cases in Pakistan due to the virus's presence in sewage water and low vaccination rates. The Pakistan Paediatrics Association has advocated for children's vaccination, urging parents to immunize their children in every round until they are five years old. According to Prof Mohammad Hussain, the president of the PPA Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the primary reason for the emergence of new cases is low vaccination coverage. With only 70% routine immunization coverage, a significant number of children do not receive the oral polio vaccine due to various reasons, including security concerns and propaganda against the vaccine.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Pakistan Paediatrics Association has urged parents to immunize their children in every round until they are five years old to prevent the spread of polio.
  • Low vaccination coverage is the primary reason for the emergence of new polio cases in Pakistan, with only 70% routine immunization coverage.
  • Paediatricians and the Emergency Operation Centre are working closely to ensure that all children are immunized, but there are reasons for the virus to continue posing threats to children, including vaccine hesitancy, security situation, and influx from neighboring Afghanistan.
  • Non-vaccination is the prime cause of poliomyelitis, with the virus existing in sewage water in the province and only immunized children being protected.
  • According to Prof Hussain, for every single case of polio-induced paralysis, there may be 100 to 200 non-paralytic infections, meaning only 0.5%-1% of infected individuals develop paralysis.
  • The total number of infected individuals could be estimated at 7800, based on the ratio of paralysis cases to non-paralytic infections.
  • All infected individuals, whether or not they exhibit paralysis, shed poliovirus in their stool for up to 42 days.
  • Five cases of polio have been recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2024, with the first infection in August.

Statistics:

  • 50: the estimated number of polio cases in Pakistan this year, according to experts.
  • 39: the confirmed cases of polio paralysis in the first 10 months of 2024.
  • 7800: the estimated total number of infected individuals, based on the ratio of paralysis cases to non-paralytic infections.
  • 70%: the routine immunization coverage in Pakistan.
  • 385: the number of environmental samples in the country that have been detected positive for the poliovirus.
  • 20: the number of polio cases reported in Balochistan in the first 10 months of 2024.
  • 12: the number of polio cases reported in Sindh in the first 10 months of 2024.
  • 5: the number of polio cases reported in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in 2024.
  • 1: the number of polio cases reported in Punjab and Islamabad in the first 10 months of 2024.

Sources:

  • The Pakistan Paediatrics Association (as stated in the original text)
  • Dawn (as stated in the original text)