Netanyahu's Calculated Risk: Israel's Iran Strikes and Regional Implications

Strategic Insights -

As the Israeli air force completes strikes on Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office releases a caption of him looking grave, surrounded by respectful subordinates, amidst a region where the burning question is whether the attack will be a one-time operation or a precursor to a more perilous one. Meanwhile, in Gaza, the war rages on, with over 800 people killed in three weeks and aid efforts hamstrung by US objections and Israeli blockade. Netanyahu's authorization of yet another round of talks on a possible hostage release deal raises questions about the success of previous negotiations. As the regional crisis deepens, the prospect of a long-term occupation of Gaza with the IDF maintaining a presence raises concerns about the gradual return of Jewish settlers.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Israeli consensus in favor of the strikes on Iran is evident, with opposition leader Yair Lapid lamenting that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) did not hit "strategic and economic targets" – a nod to the urgency of the Iranian threat.
  • The timing of the Iran attack may have been intentionally used to eclipse the worsening conditions in Gaza, where over 800 people have been killed in three weeks, and aid efforts have slowed despite US objections.
  • Netanyahu's critics have long predicted he would prolong the war in Gaza for personal gain, and it appears that prediction has come to fruition, as he seems to have achieved his objectives, at least for now.
  • The Israeli Prime Minister has continued to resist a US-urged post-war plan for Gaza involving the Palestinian Authority, despite international criticism over Israel's conduct in Gaza.
  • The regional crisis precipitated and sustained in Gaza has led to the displacement of 1.4 million citizens in Lebanon and tens of thousands in Israel.
  • Netanyahu now appears to believe he has the opportunity to create an ambitious new regional order with Iran and Hezbollah de-escalated.
  • The need to end the suffering of over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, and the remaining Israeli hostages, is more desperate than ever.

Statistics:

  • Over 800 people killed in three weeks since the IDF resumed operations against Hamas in the region.
  • 400,000 Palestinians remain in north Gaza, where conditions are dire.
  • More than 1.4 million citizens have been displaced in Lebanon due to the war with Hezbollah.
  • Tens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced.
  • Aid efforts have slowed to a trickle, with the polio vaccination program suspended due to Israeli incursions.

Sources:

  • [Donald Macintyre, The Independent, 2 November 2023, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-strikes-benjamin-netanyahu-gaza-israel-hamas-uk-britain-b2047051.html]
  • [AFP, Getty Images, Omar Al-Qattaa, 2 November 2023, https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/iran-strikes-israel]