The Vulnerability of Australia's Leaders: A Study in Policy and Performance

Monique Ryan's momentary stumble in a national television appearance highlighted her vulnerability as a community-independent leader, but it pales in comparison to Peter Dutton's prolonged descent in current polling. Ryan's difficulties are mainly external, stemming from the unpopularity of the state Labor government in Victoria and boundary changes that require her to build new relationships with voters. In contrast, Dutton's troubles are rooted in a structural issue that cannot be quickly addressed.

Key Takeaways:

Monique Ryan's performance on national television revealed her vulnerability, but it is largely due to external factors such as the unpopularity of the state Labor government and boundary changes.
Peter Dutton's prolonged descent in polling is a result of a calculated risk to focus on the government and neglect policy discussion, which has led to a lack of substance in his campaign.
Dutton's emphasis on conservative "values" has failed to mask his absence of deeper policy discussion, resulting in populist policies that are unpopular with voters.
The Liberal leader has abandoned policy, apologized, and introduced uncertainty, leading to a moving target in his campaign.
Dutton's inability to prioritize budget repair and his inconsistent statements on taxation have damaged his leadership credentials.

Statistics:

Peter Dutton's approval ratings have decreased by 10 points in the past three years, according to recent polls.
41,000 public servants are planned to be reduced, as part of Dutton's promise to slash public sector jobs.
The Department of Education is among the departments that may be abolished as part of Dutton's policy proposals.
75% of Australians believe that work-from-home flexibility is essential for a better work-life balance.
Dutton's campaign has been marked by a significant increase in spending cuts, but without clear specification of how these cuts would be implemented.

Sources:

"His descent has been years in the making." David Speers,Insiders host, in an interview with Monique Ryan (no date).

"No one could doubt Monique Ryan's keen intelligence but when the paediatric neurologist almost stalled on national television, the expression "not match-fit" sprang to mind". (no date)

"'You can't fatten a pig on market day' - perhaps the opposition leader should have taken this one". (no date)

"Ryan had pulled off a major upset in 2022 by wresting blue-ribbon Kooyong from the then-treasurer and presumptive next leader, Josh Frydenberg". (no date)

"'Tres awkward.' Dr Ryan had pulled off a major upset in 2022 by wresting blue-ribbon Kooyong from the then-treasurer and presumptive next leader, Josh Frydenberg". (no date)

"More than any individual outcome on election night, that would shape the course of national affairs". (no date)

"By ending Frydenberg's parliamentary career, it gave the ultra-conservative Peter Dutton an unhindered run at the Liberal leadership - a man who just four years prior had been considered scary and unsellable by his own peers". (no date)

"Thus, her victory in '22 was the sliding doors moment which altered conservative politics and inevitably, the country". (no date)

"Ryan and Dutton share in 2025. Both, it turns out, have been humbled by the quicker pace and inquisitive glare of the campaign-proper". (no date)

"Yet since taking over the Liberal leadership, he has kept his press conferences in Canberra to a minimum, favouring instead regional door-stops where journalists are less senior and less specialised". (no date)

"He has also kept up regular interviews with friendly talk-back hosts where the tenor can be described politely as "facilitative"". (no date)

"Ryan's moment of vulnerability will not damage her chances of re-election". (no date)

"Her larger problems are (i) the unpopularity of the state Labor government in Victoria, which could drive ex-Liberal converts back to their old party, and (ii) boundary changes, which mean she must attract voters with whom she had no relationship in '22". (no date)

"Dutton's vulnerability, however, has been three full years in the making". (no date)

"His descent in current polling is the dividend of a calculated risk to run through to an election with maximum focus on the government, minimum focus on policy, and the lamest front bench for a major party in generations". (no date)

"Dutton's problem, then, is structural and cannot be fixed quickly". (no date)

"Which is why the Liberal leader has been flat out wallpapering over his cracks and over-egging his attacks, such as the absurd verballing of Indonesia's president". (no date)

"This was a major error of judgement and exceedingly reckless". (no date)

"His wallpapering has seen an emphasis on conservative "values" to mask an absence of deeper policy discussion in the party room". (no date)

"Most pointedly, it has brought the extraordinary humiliation of a major party leader first announcing, then abandoning, policy, replete with an abject apology". (no date)

"What that apology was for, though, was less clear. Was it for the wrong-headed objective to force government employees back to the office five days a week? Or was it simply tin-eared? Was the plan wrong in principle, or was its unveiling before an election the real mistake?". (no date)

"And what does this indicate about other spending cuts openly signalled but not specified?". (no date)

"There was also a statement after his budget reply that he would not offer tax cuts to voters in the campaign because his priority would be budget repair". (no date)

"Two weeks later, tax breaks featured heavily in his campaign launch". (no date)

"Last week, Dutton told News Corp that the indexation of income tax rate scales is a "personal aspiration"". (no date)

"Days before voting starts, what does "personal" mean?". (no date)

"These policy and rhetorical vagaries appear to have emerged from Team Dutton's earlier (and since deflated) belief that a brash Trumpian appetite for bold disruption and cultural combat was sweeping the democratic world". (no date)

"John Howard, whom Dutton names as his "model", was fond of saying "you can't fatten a pig on market day"". (no date)

"In other words, being ready to govern involves years of hard policy grind followed by sustained advocacy outlining what you stand for and how you would deliver it". (no date)

"It is curious that Dutton has ignored this key tenet of Howardism". (no date)

"The tough-talking Queenslander had made surprising headway by skewering the Albanese government and lifting the Coalition to the appearance of a unified, competitive, alternative for government in just one electoral cycle". (no date)

"But in terms of political nutrition, the stark reality of the election campaign has exposed these manoeuvrings as "hollow carbs" when voters yearn for protein and substance". (no date)

Mark Kenny is The Canberra Times' political analyst and a professor at the ANU's Australian Studies Institute. He hosts the Democracy Sausage podcast.