Alberta's Separatist Movement: A Threat to Canadian Unity

Strategic Insights -

As one of the world's most prosperous jurisdictions, Alberta's population of about 4.4 million equates with that of New Zealand and a self-governing Scotland. However, the province's relentless sense of grievance with the rest of the federation remains unrelenting. Despite Ottawa's $34.2-billion expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, Alberta continues to complain about the lack of control over its own economy and resources. The province's politicians, led by Premier Danielle Smith, are actively undermining Canadian unity and sovereignty.

Key Takeaways:

  • Alberta's separatist movement, backed by a grassroots movement, is threatening Canadian unity, which is currently at a zenith not seen since Expo 67.
  • The province's leaders, including Premier Danielle Smith, are pushing for Alberta's sovereignty within a united Canada, which could lead to the province overriding federal laws it disagrees with.
  • Smith has threatened to take action if Ottawa imposes export tariffs on Alberta oil, which is shipped to the U.S., with the U.S. relying on Alberta for about 20% of its total oil consumption.
  • Alberta's Separation Act, championed by Smith, aims to carve out the province from the Canada Pension Plan and the Energy East pipeline, despite contributing only 16% of the CPP's assets.
  • Premier Doug Ford's Ontario government has taken a more moderate approach, threatening to cut off electricity exports to the U.S. and championing new oil and natural gas pipelines for Western Canada.
  • Preston Manning, a prominent Alberta nationalist, has warned Canadians that a vote for the Liberals in the upcoming election is a vote for Western secession and the breakup of Canada as we know it.
  • Canadian taxpayers have subsidized Alberta's oilpatch, housing supply, and university research projects, with a $34.2 billion expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline adding to the list of federal deals.
  • Alberta's separation would reduce the Canadian economy by about $460 billion, or 15%, a loss that is not trivial but is potentially bearable.

Statistics:

  • Alberta's population is about 4.4 million, comparable to New Zealand's and a self-governing Scotland's.
  • Ottawa's $34.2-billion expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline is expected to guarantee high Alberta oil production and employment for decades to come.
  • The U.S. relies on Alberta for about 20% of its total oil consumption.
  • The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) reports that Alberta has contributed only about 16% of the CPP's assets.
  • The province of Ontario's economy would grow by approximately $460 billion (15%) if Alberta were to separate from the rest of Canada.

Sources:

  • David Olive, "Alberta is giving me a headache," Toronto Star, April 12, 2023.
  • David Olive, "Alberta's Separatist Movement," Toronto Star, April 2, 2023.
  • Preston Manning, "Preston Manning column," Toronto Star, April 2, 2023.