Labour's Employment Rights Bill Could Boost Popularity by Up to 13 Points

Strategic Insights -

Labour's proposed employment rights bill is gaining popularity among voters, particularly among those who have moved towards the Green party or independent MPs, according to new polling data. The bill, which aims to ban zero-hours contracts, end fire-and-rehire practices, and introduce "day one" protections from unfair dismissal, has an extremely high favourability rating despite criticism from Nigel Farage, Reform UK politicians, and the Conservatives.

Key Takeaways:

  • The poll, commissioned by the TUC union, found that only about a quarter of voters were aware of the reforms, with prevention of harassment being the second most popular policy after the ban on fire-and-rehire.
  • The reforms are popular with Labour voters who have moved towards the Green party or independent MPs, increasing favourability by 11 points.
  • Peter McLeod, who ran polling for Labour in opposition, said that as people learn about the employment rights bill, their views toward the government get more positive.
  • Those polled were shown arguments in favour and against the bill, and despite tough arguments against it, favourability to the government went up.
  • When isolating the views of those crucial swing voters who picked the Tories in 2019 and Labour in 2024, a similar positive shift in the government's reputation was found.

Statistics:

  • 25% of voters were aware of the reforms in the bill.
  • Prevention of harassment has a favourable rating of 75%.
  • The ban on fire-and-rehire has a favourable rating of 72%.
  • The bill could increase the government's favourability by up to 13 points.
  • 11% of Labour voters who have moved towards the Green party or independent MPs have a more positive view of the government due to the bill.
  • 5,000 adults were polled by Peter McLeod's firm Hold Sway.

Sources:

  • "Labour's employment rights bill: what key changes will it bring?" (The Guardian)
  • "Nigel Farage is a political fraud 'cosplaying' as working-class champion, TUC chief says" (The Guardian)
  • Peter McLeod's polling data for Labour (commissioned by the TUC union)
  • Paul Nowak, TUC general secretary (statement)
  • Nigel Farage's Clacton seat (TUC promotion of the bill)