The Thucydides Trap Revisited: Understanding the US-China Rivalry through Neoclassical Realism

Strategic Insights -

The Sino-American rivalry has been a subject of intense scrutiny in recent years, with many scholars resorting to the ancient Greek historian Thucydides' concept of the "Thucydides Trap" to explain the likelihood of war between the two superpowers. However, a closer examination of Graham T. Allison's seminal work, "Destined for War: Can America and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?", reveals that the concept may be more complex than initially thought. Allison's research suggests that 12 out of 16 historical rivalries between rising and established powers culminated in war, citing instances such as the rivalry between Germany and Britain and the near-conflict between the USA and the USSR during the Cold War. However, a more nuanced analysis reveals that conflict was often precipitated not solely by the rise of new powers, but also by their revisionist policies and the incumbent power's response to these challenges.

Key Takeaways:

  • Graham T. Allison's concept of the "Thucydides Trap" suggests that 12 out of 16 historical rivalries between rising and established powers culminated in war, but this concept may have been overstated.
  • A closer examination of historical instances reveals that conflict was often precipitated by the revisionist policies of rising powers and the response of the incumbent power.
  • The US-China rivalry may be viewed through the lens of an "inverted Thucydides Trap," where the structural-process stress stems from the 'ruling' power's hegemonic ambitions rather than the 'rising' power's challenge.
  • China's rise has been largely peaceful, with no systematic violations of international legal norms, whereas the USA has exhibited more pronounced revisionist behavior, including the expansion of its sphere of influence, violations of international legal and economic norms, and a regime change strategy aimed at reconfiguring adversarial states' foreign policies.
  • Neoclassical realism offers a more comprehensive understanding of the US-China rivalry by integrating systemic and domestic levels of analysis, highlighting the role of internal factors, including domestic political dynamics and ideological orientations, in shaping states' foreign policies.
  • A reorientation of US grand strategy from liberal hegemony toward offshore balancing could mitigate the risk of a US-China war, as suggested by Allison's recommendation for US policy accommodation with China.

Statistics:

  • 12 out of 16 historical rivalries between rising and established powers culminated in war, according to Graham T. Allison's research (Allison, 2017).
  • The US-China rivalry has not seen systematic violations of international legal norms by China, unlike the USA, which has engaged in numerous violations of international legal and economic norms (Allison, 2017).
  • The USA has expanded its sphere of influence in Europe and Asia to encircle China, consistent with its revisionist grand strategy (Allison, 2017).
  • China's economic and military growth over recent decades has been largely peaceful, with no expansionist behavior or systemic rule violations (Allison, 2017).

Sources:

  • Allison, G. T. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?
  • Thucydides (2011). The History of the Peloponnesian War.