Tornado Watch Issued for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas

Strategic Insights -

A Tornado Watch has been issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for portions of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, effective from Monday afternoon and evening until 900 PM CDT. The watch area includes a 60 statute mile wide region along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Roswell, NM to 20 miles east southeast of Midland, TX.

Supercell thunderstorms are expected to pose a threat for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail (up to baseball size/2.75 inches in diameter) as they move slowly east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts up to 65-75 mph may also occur on a more isolated basis.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Tornado Watch is effective for Southeast New Mexico and West Texas from Monday afternoon and evening until 900 PM CDT.
  • Supercell thunderstorms are expected to pose a threat for a few tornadoes and large to very large hail up to baseball size/2.75 inches in diameter.
  • Severe wind gusts up to 65-75 mph may also occur on a more isolated basis.
  • The storm system includes a 60 statute mile wide region along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Roswell, NM to 20 miles east southeast of Midland, TX.
  • Persons in the watch area should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • The Probability of 2 or more tornadoes is Mod (50%), Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is Low (20%), and Probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots is Mod (30%).
  • The Hail and Wind probabilities are Mod (10 or more severe hail/wind events) and (50% or higher), respectively.

Statistics:

  • 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Roswell, NM to 20 miles east southeast of Midland, TX is the affected region.
  • 325 PM CDT to 900 PM CDT is the duration of the Tornado Watch.
  • Up to 2.75 inches in diameter is the size of potential hail.
  • Up to 65-75 mph is the speed of severe wind gusts.
  • 50% is the Probability of 2 or more tornadoes.
  • 20% is the Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes.
  • 40% is the Probability of 10 or more severe wind events.
  • 60% is the Probability of 10 or more severe hail events.
  • 50% is the Probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches.

Sources:

  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
  • WOUS64 KWNS WOU7