European Commission President Calls for Just and Lasting Peace in Ukraine

Strategic Insights -

As the European Union marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, warning that a bad deal would encourage Russia to come back for more, leading to instability and insecurity. She outlined three priorities for EU action: supporting Ukraine's defense, completing the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, and accelerating Ukraine's accession path to the EU. The President also underscored the importance of Europe's energy security, highlighting the need to stop financing Putin's war-chest and reduce dependence on Russian energy imports.

Key Takeaways:

  • The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized the need for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, warning that a bad deal would encourage Russia to come back for more.
  • The EU has already supported Ukraine with EUR 50 billion in military aid, but now aims to move from a logic of aid to a logic of integration of defense industries.
  • The "porcupine strategy" involves encouraging EU Member States to place orders directly in Ukraine's defense industry, focusing on defense tech and innovation.
  • Fossil fuel revenues remain a key source of funding for the Russian war machine, with the EU aiming to stop financing Putin's war-chest by phasing out Russian fossil fuels.
  • The EU has already cut its gas imports from Russia by 60 bcm per year and diversified away from Russia, reducing its dependence on Russian energy imports.
  • The EU will propose a ban on new contracts with Russia as well as on imports on the spot market by the end of 2025, and aim to ban all remaining imports of Russian gas by no later than the end of 2027.
  • Accelerating Ukraine's accession path to the EU is a top priority, with the first cluster of accession talks to open in 2025 and all clusters to be opened by 2027.
  • Ukraine joining the EU would be the strongest security guarantee, and a just and lasting peace would usher in a new era of prosperity for Ukraine.

Statistics:

  • EUR 50 billion: EU military aid to Ukraine
  • EUR 12 billion/month: EU spending on Russian fossil fuels at the beginning of the war
  • EUR 1.8 billion/month: EU spending on Russian fossil fuels currently
  • 60 bcm/year: Reduction in gas imports from Russia
  • 13%: Percentage of gas imports from Russia now (down from 45%)
  • 1-in-50 barrels: Reduction in oil imports from Russia
  • 2025: Target year for banning new contracts with Russia and imports on the spot market
  • 2027: Target year for banning all remaining imports of Russian gas

Sources:

  • European Commission press release: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_25_1148
  • European Commission White Paper "Readiness 2030": [not available in the original text]