Tornado Watch Issued for Eastern Lower Michigan, Lake Erie, and Lake Huron

Strategic Insights -

A well-organized thunderstorm cluster is moving quickly eastward across Lower Michigan, posing a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Bad Axe, MI to 35 miles south of Ann Arbor, MI. Residents in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Key Takeaways:

  • A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of Eastern Lower Michigan, Lake Erie, and Lake Huron, effective from 1130 PM on Thursday, May 15, 2025, to 500 AM EDT on Friday, May 16, 2025.
  • Primary threats include a couple of tornadoes possible, scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, and isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.
  • The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Bad Axe, MI to 35 miles south of Ann Arbor, MI.
  • A well-organized thunderstorm cluster is expected to continue to pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes as it moves quickly eastward across Lower Michigan.
  • Aviation watches include potential for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches, extreme turbulence, and surface wind gusts to 65 knots.
  • The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a statement emphasizing the need for residents in the affected areas to be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Statistics:

  • The tornado watch area is approximately 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Bad Axe, MI to 35 miles south of Ann Arbor, MI.
  • The watch area includes a total population of approximately 2 million people.
  • The National Weather Service reports that the probability of 2 or more tornadoes in the watch area is 40%.
  • The probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is 20%.
  • The probability of 10 or more severe wind events is 60%.
  • The probability of 10 or more severe hail events is 20%.

Sources:

  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
  • National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center