Tornado Watch Issued for Southwest Oklahoma, Western North Texas, and South Plains

Strategic Insights -

A *Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of Southwest Oklahoma, Western North Texas, and South Plains, effective from 345 PM CDT Sunday, May 25, 2025, until 1100 PM CDT. Supercells are expected along a decelerating boundary with a very favorable thermodynamic environment and wind profiles. Very large hail and a tornado risk will exist, with severe wind potential also increasing as eventual clustering occurs this evening.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Tornado Watch area is approximately 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of Lubbock, TX, to 45 miles south-southeast of Altus, OK.
  • Supercells are expected to develop along a decelerating boundary with a very favorable thermodynamic environment and wind profiles.
  • Very large hail and a tornado risk will exist, with severe wind potential also increasing as eventual clustering occurs this evening.
  • Persons in the watch area should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area, with the actual watch depicted by shaded areas on the Watch 325 Status Report Message.
  • The probability of 2 or more tornadoes is Mod (40%), with a probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is Low (20%).
  • The probability of 10 or more severe wind events is Mod (50%), with a probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots is Low (20%).
  • The probability of 10 or more severe hail events is Mod (60%), with a probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches is Mod (50%).

Statistics:

  • Effective time for the Tornado Watch: 345 PM CDT Sunday, May 25, 2025, until 1100 PM CDT.
  • Watch area: Approximately 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles northwest of Lubbock, TX, to 45 miles south-southeast of Altus, OK.
  • Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: Mod (40%).
  • Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes: Low (20%).
  • Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: Mod (50%).
  • Probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots: Low (20%).
  • Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: Mod (60%).
  • Probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches: Mod (50%).

Sources:

  • NWS Storm Prediction Center
  • NWS Norman OK
  • WOUS64 KWNS WOU5
  • Aviation Watch (SAW) product