Taiwan's "Not Today Policy" Aims to Deter China's Invasion

Strategic Insights -

Taiwan has been facing a pressing threat from China's President Xi Jinping, who is rumored to want to invade the island by 2027, the centenary of the Chinese army's creation and the end of Xi's current term. Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister François Chihchung Wu has introduced the concept of the "Not Today Policy," which aims to deter China from invading by ensuring that Xi Jinping has second thoughts every day about the wisdom of invading China's tiny island neighbor.

The policy largely rests on military deterrence and strong military alliances, especially with the United States. Taiwan has been increasing its defense spending significantly, with the national budget allocation for defense now exceeding 16% of the total. The country also enjoys a strong alliance with the US, with 10 countries, including the US, Germany, France, and Japan, having sent warships to Taiwan in recent years.

According to a recent survey by Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research, only 25% of Taiwanese people expect an invasion within the next five years, despite 60% believing that China is the most important threat facing Taiwan. Liang Wen-chieh, Deputy Minister of the Mainland Affairs Council, opines that the Taiwanese people have grown used to living under military threat since the country's founding in 1949, but this has made them complacent.

Key Takeaways:

  • The "Not Today Policy" is Taiwan's strategy to deter China's invasion by ensuring that Xi Jinping has second thoughts every day about the wisdom of invading Taiwan.
  • Taiwan has increased its defense spending significantly, with the national budget allocation for defense now exceeding 16% of the total.
  • The country enjoys a strong alliance with the US, with 10 countries having sent warships to Taiwan in recent years.
  • Taiwan has pursued a strategy of asymmetrical warfare, with a focus on defensive weaponry such as anti-aircraft, anti-ship, and other missiles, drones, and submarines.
  • The reliance on outside energy sources is Taiwan's Achilles heel, which could enable it to withstand an invasion or blockade for no more than two weeks.
  • Plans are underway to build a gas pipeline from Alaska via Japan to Taiwan to reduce the country's reliance on outside energy sources.

Statistics:

  • 60% of Taiwanese people believe that China is the most important threat facing Taiwan (INDSR survey).
  • Only 25% of Taiwanese people expect an invasion within the next five years (INDSR survey).
  • Taiwan's national budget allocation for defense exceeds 16% of the total (Government sources).
  • 10 countries have sent warships to Taiwan in recent years (Government sources).
  • 60% of all semiconductors and 95% of advanced chips are made in Taiwan (Wu, Deputy Foreign Minister).
  • 100% of the even more sophisticated chips are manufactured in Taiwan (Wu, Deputy Foreign Minister).
  • 38 naval ships, including an aircraft carrier strike group, participated in China's recent military drills off Taiwan (Chinese military spokesperson).
  • China has launched scores of sorties by its warplanes into Taiwan's airspace, increasing from 380 in 2020 to 3,080 last year (Taiwanese officials).

Sources:

  • Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR)
  • World Health Organisation (WHO)
  • The Global Semiconductor Supply Chain Forum
  • The Taiwanese government
  • The US military
  • The Chinese military spokesperson