Modi's Pakistan Policy Falls Apart: A Zero-Sum Approach to Regional Dominance

Strategic Insights -

The BJP's pledge to liberalize India's economic policy during the 2014 electoral campaign, however, turned into a zero-sum strategy to assert regional dominance under Narendra Modi's leadership. The BJP's theoretically centrist economic policies in fact has become a vehicle for expansion of its global influence. Modi's ambition for regional supremacy hardened, with the pursuit of decisively subduing Pakistan as the primary engine driving this vision. The Modi government's policy on Pakistan can be broadly categorized into four pillars: bilateral disengagement, diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan regionally and internationally, aggressive military posturing in response to alleged attacks by Pakistan-based militants, and coercing media into amplifying a narrative of Indian dominance.

Key Takeaways:

  • Modi's Pakistan policy focused on coercive diplomacy and military aggression, marked by a sharp escalation in 2016 after the Uri attack and the subsequent Pakistani response.
  • The Indian government's refusal to provide conclusive evidence linking Pakistan to various attacks led to widespread criticism and erosion of public support.
  • Open-source intelligence analysts, fact-checkers, and ordinary citizens began debunking the official narrative of India's military success in real-time, exposing the flaws in Modi's Pakistan policy.
  • The diplomatic fallout from the Pahalgam crisis demonstrated India's weakened position, despite its growing ties with major powers, and highlighted Pakistan's successful international outreach.
  • The collapse of the Indian media's hyper-nationalist narrative in real-time underscored the failure of Modi's Pakistan policy, which had heavily relied on media to construct fictitious tales of military dominance.
  • The U.S.-brokered ceasefire that followed the Pahalgam crisis further highlighted India's weakened position, with Pakistan projecting itself as a responsible state and India coming across as reckless and diplomatically weakened.

Statistics:

  • Between 2018 and 2022, Pakistan continuously remained on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, a result of India's aggressive lobbying at the international stage.
  • According to reports, Pakistan Air Force shot down multiple Indian aircraft in the initial clash following the Pahalgam incident.
  • Open-source intelligence analysts and fact-checkers debunked claims of Indian military success in real-time, contradicting the official narrative.
  • The Indian military avoided direct air combat in the Pahalgam crisis, relying instead on loitering munitions and long-range missile strikes.
  • The aftermath of the Pahalgam crisis saw diplomatic fallout, with India failing to secure clear international support, while Pakistan secured unequivocal backing from China and Turkey.

Sources:

  • [Article title] "India's Pakistan Policy Under Modi Falls Apart" from The Friday Times, with permission from HT Digital Content Services.
  • [No additional sources mentioned in the original text]