Bolivia on Brink of Election Unrest Amidst Economic Crisis and Polarization

Strategic Insights -

As Bolivia hurtles toward general elections on August 17, rising tensions and protests have many worried that the vote could be marred by violence, deep polarization, and institutional instability. The crisis began after the electoral tribunal barred former President Evo Morales from running again, citing term limits. Since then, protests and roadblocks have erupted across the country, leaving six people dead, including police officers and farmers. As public distrust grows, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal has warned of "dark forces" seeking to disrupt the election, and the absence of a preclusion law has raised concerns that the election could be suspended or annulled.

Key Takeaways:

  • The general elections in Bolivia are scheduled for August 17, but political tensions and protests have raised concerns about the potential for violence and institutional instability.
  • The protests have resulted in six deaths, including police officers and farmers, and have drawn comparisons to some of Bolivia's darkest periods of political unrest.
  • The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has warned of "dark forces" attempting to disrupt the election, and public distrust is growing as electoral institutions face pressure in an increasingly polarized climate.
  • The absence of a preclusion law, which would block indefinite legal challenges to the electoral process, has raised concerns that the election could be suspended or annulled.
  • Bolivia is grappling with a deepening economic crisis, including annual inflation of 18.46% in May and prices for basic goods climbing nearly 24% over the past year.
  • A joint report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program warned that acute food insecurity in Bolivia is expected to worsen in the coming months, driven by high inflation and declining foreign reserves.
  • According to the U.N. report, 2.2 million Bolivians (about 19% of the population) experienced acute food insecurity as of October 2024.
  • Political analyst Franklin Pareja has warned that delays in the elections or attempts at electoral fraud could trigger widespread unrest in a country already strained by economic crisis and public distrust.

Statistics:

  • 18.46% annual inflation rate in Bolivia in May.
  • 24% increase in prices for basic goods, such as beef and chicken, over the past year.
  • 2.2 million Bolivians (about 19% of the population) experiencing acute food insecurity as of October 2024.
  • Acute food insecurity in Bolivia expected to worsen in the coming months, driven by high inflation and declining foreign reserves.

Sources:

  • Macarena Hermosilla, "Bolivia's pending elections: Will social unrest prevail?" UPI, June 18.
  • Èôscar Hassenteufel, president of Bolivia's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, news conference, June 2024.
  • President Luis Arce, news conference in Santa Cruz, June 2024.
  • United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program, joint report, 2024.
  • Franklin Pareja, interview with eju.tv radio, June 2024.