Tornado Watch Issued for Portions of Northeast Illinois, Northern and Central Indiana, and Southwest Lower Michigan

Strategic Insights -

Intense thunderstorms are currently developing over central Illinois, spreading northeastward through the afternoon, promoting a risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. A Tornado Watch has been issued for areas approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of South Bend, IN to 35 miles south of Bloomington, IN.

Key Takeaways:

  • The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois, Northern and Central Indiana, and Southwest Lower Michigan, effective from NOON until 700 PM CDT on Wednesday.
  • Primary threats include a few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible, scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible, and scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.
  • The watch area is approximately 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of South Bend, IN to 35 miles south of Bloomington, IN.
  • A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area, and persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • The Aviation Watch product is an approximation to the watch area, with a few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500 and mean storm motion vector 24035.
  • The Probability of 2 or more tornadoes is High (70%), the Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is Mod (30%), and the Probability of 10 or more severe wind events is High (70%).

Statistics:

  • Time period: NOON until 700 PM CDT on Wednesday
  • Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: 70%
  • Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes: 30%
  • Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: 70%
  • Probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots: 30%
  • Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: 40%
  • Probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches: 20%
  • Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events: 90%

Sources:

  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • NWS Storm Prediction Center
  • MIL OSI USA News (http://milnz.co.nz/mil-osi-aggregation/)
  • Contify.com
  • Multimedia Investments Ltd.