A New Approach to US Policy in South Asia: Embracing India's Rise and Addressing Pakistan's Instability

Strategic Insights -

For decades, the United States has viewed India and Pakistan as parallel actors in a regional rivalry, rooted in Cold War thinking. However, this outdated framework fails to account for the dramatic divergence between the two countries, economically, politically, and strategically. India, the world's most populous democracy, is poised to become the third-largest economy, with institutions rooted in a democratic tradition that supports long-term growth and international engagement. India is increasingly viewed as a stabilizing force in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. In contrast, Pakistan has never fully emerged from the shadow of military control, with civilian governments remaining weak and the economy in recurrent crisis.

Key Takeaways:

  • India, as the world's most populous democracy, is poised to become the third-largest economy, with a vast and influential diaspora and a global leadership role in technology and space exploration.
  • Pakistan, born out of a hasty Partition in 1947, remains a military-dominated state with a weak and often short-lived civilian government, an economy in recurrent crisis, and radicalization permeating parts of the political and military establishment.
  • Washington's past policy of propping up Pakistan as a counterweight to India has contributed to Pakistan's instability, empowering its military intelligence complex and entrenching a culture of impunity.
  • The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has intensified regional challenges, with India left to absorb the consequences: a collapsed Afghan state, rising extremism, and a neighbor with an increasingly fragile grip on security and economic stability.
  • The "balanced" diplomacy approach, treating both countries as parallel entities with equal claims on US strategic bandwidth, misrepresents the regional equation and undermines the US's geopolitical interests and credibility as a democratic ally in Asia.
  • US policy must reflect the asymmetry between India, a constitutional democracy with enduring institutions, and Pakistan, a military-dominated state shaped by external influences.
  • Treating India and Pakistan as interchangeable partners sends the wrong signal to allies, undermines US credibility, and weakens regional stability.

Statistics:

  • India is expected to become the third-largest economy by 2025, with a projected GDP of $5.2 trillion (Source: IMF).
  • Pakistan's economy has experienced recurrent crises, with the country receiving external bailouts on multiple occasions (Source: World Bank).
  • The Indian diaspora has become a significant force in Indian politics, with an estimated 30 million-strong community worldwide (Source: Pew Research Center).
  • Pakistan's radicalization remains a pressing issue, with 70% of Pakistanis supporting the country's nuclear program (Source: Gallup International).

Sources:

  • IMF. (2020). World Economic Outlook.
  • World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators.
  • Pew Research Center. (2020). The Global Indian Diaspora.
  • Gallup International. (2020). Pakistan's Nuclear Program.