Tornado Watch Issued for Portions of North Dakota

Strategic Insights -

A Tornado Watch has been issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for parts of North Dakota, effective from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. The watch area includes around 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Garrison ND to 40 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND. Severe storms, including supercells, are expected to develop through early/mid-evening within a highly unstable environment.

Key Takeaways:

  • The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for parts of North Dakota, covering approximately 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Garrison ND to 40 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND.
  • Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop through early/mid-evening within a highly unstable environment, amidst moderately strong atmospheric winds.
  • These supercells may be intense and capable of producing very large hail along with some tornado risk, with severe wind gust potential likely to increase later in the evening.
  • Persons in the affected areas are advised to be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Garrison ND to 40 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND.
  • The watch will be in effect from 520 PM CDT to 100 AM CDT.

Statistics:

  • The Tornado Watch area covers approximately 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Garrison ND to 40 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND.
  • The watch area is approximately 90 NM north and 55 WS W of GFK.
  • Hail surface and aloft can reach up to 4 inches in diameter.
  • Wind gusts can reach up to 70 knots.
  • Mean storm motion vector is 29025.
  • Probability of 2 or more tornadoes is 40%.
  • Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is 20%.
  • Probability of 10 or more severe wind events is 60%.
  • Probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots is 60%.
  • Probability of 10 or more severe hail events is 80%.
  • Probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches is 50%.
  • Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events is 95%.

Sources:

  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  • NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK