Supreme Court's Conservative Majority Delivers a Winning Streak for Trump

Strategic Insights -

The Supreme Court's six-justice conservative majority has given President Trump a winning streak, with the majority of emergency decisions favoring the administration's agenda, despite being based on rushed and cursory briefs. The court, remade in Trump's first term with three conservative justices, has issued an extraordinary run of victories for the president, including a 6-to-3 ruling that largely eliminated the main tool opponents used to thwart his agenda.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Supreme Court's conservative majority has issued an extraordinary run of victories for President Trump, with 19 emergency applications filed by the administration in the first 20 weeks of Trump's second term, compared to 8 filed by the Biden administration over four years, and far more than the 16 years of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama presidencies.
  • The court's emergency docket has profoundly changed the work and nature of the court, with the justices now working under intense time pressure and being barraged with applications.
  • The justices, including Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., have noted that the emergency docket has disrupted the rhythms of their lives, with them being never out of session.
  • The median time from when a party first sought Supreme Court review to when the justices ruled was more than a year in recent terms, but is now about three weeks for emergency applications.
  • The court has issued decisions affecting hundreds of thousands of immigrants, including nearly 350,000 Venezuelan immigrants and over 500,000 noncitizens from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, by lifting protections and ending humanitarian programs.
  • Justices Barrett and Kagan were among the most likely to be in the majority in divided cases, with Barrett's overall record remaining secure at 84%, tied for second with Justice Anthony M. Kennedy.
  • Justice Kavanaugh was in the majority 89% of the time since joining the court, a higher rate than any justice since 1953.

Statistics:

  • 19 emergency applications filed by the Trump administration in the first 20 weeks of Trump's second term
  • 8 emergency applications filed by the Biden administration over four years
  • 16 years of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama presidencies with fewer than 19 emergency applications
  • 56 decisions in argued cases resolved with signed opinions in the term that ended on Friday
  • 4-term record for the Supreme Court, considered conservative justices' best term since the 1930s
  • 89% majority rate for Justice Kavanaugh since joining the court
  • 84% majority rate for Justice Barrett
  • Median time from party first seeking Supreme Court review to when the justices ruled: over a year in recent terms, but about three weeks for emergency applications

Sources:

  • "The New York Times" (July 1, 2022)
  • "National Review's Bench Memos" (June 30, 2022)
  • Washington University in St. Louis
  • Penn State University
  • Professor Lee Epstein and Andrew D. Martin, Washington University in St. Louis, and Michael J. Nelson, Penn State University