A New Gaza Ceasefire Deal is on the Table: Will This Time Be Different?

Strategic Insights -

Gaza's devastation has worsened by the day, with a new proposal on the table for a 60-day ceasefire. If agreed, it would involve Hamas releasing 28 living hostages and the bodies of 18 deceased hostages over the 60-day period, in exchange for the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners. This proposal is similar to the eight-week, three-phase ceasefire from January to March of this year, which collapsed after the first phase of hostage exchanges. The new deal would also involve negotiations for a permanent end to hostilities and a roadmap for post-war governance in Gaza. However, the recurrent obstacles to a deal remain, and it's unclear if the proposed terms will include guarantees to prevent Israel resuming the war after the 60-day period.

Key Takeaways:

  • The new proposal involves Hamas releasing 28 living hostages and the bodies of 18 deceased hostages over the 60-day period, in exchange for the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners.
  • The proposal is similar to the eight-week, three-phase ceasefire from January to March of this year, which collapsed after the first phase of hostage exchanges.
  • Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political maneuverability to pursue a ceasefire over the objections of far-right hardliners in his coalition.
  • Trump has significant leverage he can use with Netanyahu due to his military assistance to Israel in the Iran conflict.
  • Both Trump and Netanyahu view Iran's weakened position as an opportunity for expanding the Abraham accords.
  • Hamas is demanding a return to traditional humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza, or at least the replacement of the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).
  • Israel's military control over Gaza has become further entrenched since the last ceasefire, with more than 80% of Gaza covered by evacuation orders.
  • New orders for north Gaza and Gaza City have been issued, and Netanyahu has spoken openly about long-term military occupation of Gaza.
  • Trump has a renewed interest in getting to a ceasefire, and Netanyahu has a rare political window to enter an agreement and get hostages home.
  • Hamas has been weakened by Israel's military pounding and increasing disillusionment from the people of Gaza.
  • The current moment offers an opportunity for a breakthrough in achieving a long-lasting ceasefire.

Statistics:

  • 28 living hostages to be released by Hamas over 60 days
  • 18 deceased hostages to be released by Hamas over 60 days
  • 400 previously operating aid points replaced by 4 Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) distribution sites
  • 400+ people killed while seeking aid near GHF distribution sites since May 26
  • 80% of Gaza covered by evacuation orders
  • 12-day war between Israel and Iran
  • 4 distribution sites of GHF located in militarised zones

Sources:

  • The Conversation -- Global Perspectives -- By Julie M. Norman, Senior Associate Fellow on the Middle East at RUSI; Associate Professor in Politics & International Relations, UCL
  • https://theconversation.com/a-new-gaza-ceasefire-deal-is-on-the-table-will-this-time-be-different-260219