Ukraine's Air Defences Under Siege as Russia Escalates Missile and Drone Attacks

Strategic Insights -

As Ukraine's air force faced its largest combined missile and drone barrage of the war yet, a Ukrainian pilot made a heroic sacrifice to prevent damage to a populated area. The attack, launched late on Saturday and early Sunday, saw Russia deploy 477 drones, mostly Iranian-made Shaheds, and 60 missiles, with at least six people killed and 14 hospitalised in the resulting strikes.

Ukraine's air defences, bolstered by an impressive interception rate of 270 of 550 targets, including two cruise missiles, are stretched to the limit. As ground-based air defence systems become overextended, Ukraine has turned to fighter jets to down incoming drones, as seen in the fatal mission of Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko. Despite these efforts, the drones that do get through are lethal, with at least six people killed in a single night of strikes.

The Ukrainian intelligence source warned that the absence of Patriot air-defence missiles, paused by the US, could leave major cities like Kyiv exposed to Russian ballistic missile attack. Ukraine's vulnerability is compounded by the recent decision to stockpile enough weapons to sustain at least two more years of war, with drone production up 17 per cent in May alone.

Key Takeaways:

  • Russia launched 477 drones and 60 missiles in its largest combined missile and drone barrage of the war yet, with at least six people killed and 14 hospitalised in the resulting strikes.
  • Ukraine's air force shot down 270 of 550 targets, including two cruise missiles, with a significant portion lost from radar and presumed jammed.
  • The Ukrainian military is looking for additional air defence systems, with a source close to the military stating they are "okay on air defence systems throughout the rest of this year".
  • Russia's surging defence industry, aided by an expanded missile plant in Votkinsk and rapidly expanding supply chains, could soon allow Russia to fire 1,000 missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities in a single night.
  • The US decision to pause key weapons shipments, including Patriot air-defence missiles, has left Ukraine vulnerable to Russian attack.
  • Ukraine has turned to fighter jets to down incoming drones, with a Ukrainian pilot making a heroic sacrifice to prevent damage to a populated area.

Statistics:

  • 477 drones and 60 missiles launched by Russia in its largest combined missile and drone barrage of the war yet.
  • Ukraine's air force shot down 270 of 550 targets, with a 49% interception rate.
  • 17% increase in drone production in May alone, with a stockpile sufficient to sustain at least two more years of war.
  • 1,000 missiles and drones potentially deployable by Russia in a single night, according to estimates.
  • 6 people killed and 14 hospitalised in a single night of strikes on June 28.

Sources:

  • The Telegraph
  • Ukrainian Centre for Security and Cooperation
  • Oslo Nuclear Project
  • Ukrainian military source, speaking anonymously
  • Fabian Hoffmann, research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project