Measles Outbreaks on the Rise: Experts Fear Deadly Consequences

Experts are warning that unless vaccination rates improve, deadly outbreaks of measles will become the new normal. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (C.D.C.) has reported more measles cases in 2025 than any other year since the virus was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. The largest single outbreak since 2000 has been linked to a Mennonite community in West Texas, and cases have also been reported in 38 states.

Experts fear that the country is barreling toward losing elimination status, a designation given to countries that have not had continuous spread of measles for more than a year. "It's a huge red flag for the direction in which we're going," said Dr. William Moss, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Most of the cases this year have been tied to unvaccinated individuals, with 92% of confirmed cases being unvaccinated or having unknown vaccination status.

Measles symptoms typically resolve in a few weeks, but the virus can cause pneumonia, brain swelling, and intellectual disabilities. For every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die, according to the C.D.C.

Key Takeaways:

There have been more measles cases in 2025 than in any other year since the virus was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000, with a total of 1,288 confirmed cases.
Most of the cases this year have been tied to the Southwest outbreak, which began in January in a Mennonite community in West Texas and has since jumped to New Mexico and Oklahoma.
Cases have also been reported in 38 states, representing a concerning vulnerability to diseases of the past.
The outbreak's full effect on public health may not be apparent for years, due to "immune amnesia" caused by the virus.
Until now, 2019 held the record for the highest number of measles cases since the virus was eliminated, with 1,274 cases linked to a large outbreak in Orthodox Jewish communities in New York State.
Local officials in West Texas have predicted the outbreak will continue for a year.
Experts worry that the country will not be able to avoid losing elimination status this time, which would be a "deeply embarrassing" development for the United States.
The country has faced large measles outbreaks in the past, but a confluence of factors has made it particularly difficult to rein in the virus this year, including a decline in measles vaccination rates during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Roughly 93% of children in kindergarten in the 2023-24 school year had received the measles, mumps, and rubella shot, though rates in some parts of the country were far lower.
Efforts from local public health officials to contain outbreaks have been hamstrung by the new health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has downplayed the outbreak and offered only muted support of vaccines.

Statistics:

1,288 confirmed measles cases in 2025
92% of confirmed cases were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status
2 unvaccinated children and 1 adult have died this year from measles
The C.D.C. reports that for every 1,000 children who get measles, one or two will die
The largest single outbreak since 2000 has been linked to a Mennonite community in West Texas
38 states have reported cases of measles
93% of children in kindergarten in the 2023-24 school year had received the measles, mumps, and rubella shot

Sources:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (C.D.C.)
Dr. William Moss, epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health
Dr. Adam Ratner, pediatric infectious disease expert and author
World Health Organization (W.H.O.)
University of Minnesota
Department of Health and Human Services
The New York Times