Tornado Watch Issued for Central and Southern Wisconsin, Lake Michigan

Strategic Insights -

A tornado watch has been issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, effective from 1215 PM CDT on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, and lasting until 600 PM CDT. The watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Green Bay, WI, to 10 miles south southwest of Janesville, WI.

Key Takeaways:

  • The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, effective from 1215 PM CDT on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, and lasting until 600 PM CDT.
  • The watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Green Bay, WI, to 10 miles south southwest of Janesville, WI.
  • Embedded within the band of storms will likely include several supercells with an attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts.
  • A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
  • Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area, with the actual watch depicted by the shaded areas.
  • The watch has a probability of 2 or more tornadoes (40%), 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes (20%), 10 or more severe wind events (40%), 1 or more wind events 65 knots (20%), 10 or more severe hail events (20%), 1 or more hailstones 2 inches in diameter (10%), and 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events (60%).

Statistics:

  • The watch area covers approximately 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Green Bay, WI, to 10 miles south southwest of Janesville, WI.
  • The watch is effective from 1215 PM CDT on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, and lasts until 600 PM CDT.
  • The watch has a probability of:

+ 2 or more tornadoes (40%)

+ 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes (20%)

+ 10 or more severe wind events (40%)

+ 1 or more wind events 65 knots (20%)

+ 10 or more severe hail events (20%)

+ 1 or more hailstones 2 inches in diameter (10%)

+ 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events (60%)

Sources:

  • NWS Storm Prediction Center
  • SEL7 URGENT -- IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 517
  • SAW7 WW 517 TORNADO WI LM 161715Z -- 162300Z
  • Note: Click for Complete Product Text
  • Note: Click for Watch Status Reports