Virginia Governor's Race: Democratic Candidate Spanberger Leads GOP's Earle-Sears

Strategic Insights -

As Virginia prepares for its 2025 statewide election, the latest Commonwealth Poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University reveals key insights into voter sentiment and critical policy issues. The poll shows a clear message from voters: performance matters and so do priorities. The findings indicate a shift in voter priorities, with the rising cost of living, women's reproductive rights, and immigration policies emerging as top concerns.

Key Takeaways:

  • Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 37% in the governor's race among registered voters in Virginia, marking an increase in both Spanberger's support and her lead compared to the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll.
  • The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general show similar dynamics, with Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leading former radio host John Reid 46% to 36%, and Democratic former Del. Jay Jones holding a 47% to 38% advantage over Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares.
  • Nearly half of independents (47%) report being undecided, a trend consistent across all three matchups.
  • The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.
  • 49% of registered voters in Virginia approve of the job Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is doing, while 39% disapprove, with support highest among Republicans (84%) and lowest among Democrats (20%).
  • President Donald Trump remains less popular among Virginia voters, with 40% approving of the job he is doing, while 55% disapprove.
  • The top issues influencing voters in the upcoming election are the rising cost of living (28%), women's reproductive rights (14%), and immigration (14%).
  • These results reflect a clear shift from the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 58% of voters cited the cost of living as their top concern and 14% named K-12 education as their second-most important issue.

Statistics:

  • 49% of registered voters in Virginia approve of the job Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is doing.
  • 39% of registered voters in Virginia disapprove of the job Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is doing.
  • 40% of registered voters in Virginia approve of the job President Donald Trump is doing.
  • 55% of registered voters in Virginia disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing.
  • 28% of voters identified the rising cost of living as the issue most influencing their vote in the upcoming election.
  • 14% of voters identified women's reproductive rights as the issue most influencing their vote in the upcoming election.
  • 14% of voters identified immigration as the issue most influencing their vote in the upcoming election.

Sources:

  • "In Virginia governor's race, Democratic candidate Spanberger leads GOP's Earle-Sears, 49% to 37%." (L. Douglas Wilder and Robyn McDougle, July 16, 2025, https://news.vcu.edu/article/2025/07/in-virginia-governors-race-democratic-candidate-spanberger-leads-gops-earle-sears-49-to-37)