Virginia Voters Send Clear Message on Performance and Priorities

Strategic Insights -

Voters in Virginia are increasingly focused on performance and priorities in the lead-up to the 2025 statewide election. A recent poll conducted by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University shows that cost of living, women's reproductive rights, and immigration are top concerns for many voters. The poll, which captured voter sentiment between June 19 and July 3, found that Democratic candidates are in the lead in key races, with former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger ahead of Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor's race.

Key Takeaways:

  • The poll results show a clear shift in voter priorities, with cost of living, women's reproductive rights, and immigration taking center stage, replacing education as the top concerns.
  • Democratic candidates are leading in key races, with former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger holding a 12-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor's race.
  • The shift in voter priorities suggests that Republican candidates, including Governor Glenn Youngkin, may struggle to connect with voters on issues outside of traditional party lines.
  • Governor Youngkin's approval ratings have declined slightly since the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, with 49% of registered voters approving and 39% disapproving.
  • President Donald Trump remains unpopular among Virginia voters, with 40% approving and 55% disapproving of his performance.
  • The poll found that 47% of independents are undecided in the key races, highlighting the importance of persuading middle-of-the-road voters in the upcoming election.
  • The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs conducted the poll between June 19 and July 3, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.

Statistics:

  • 49% of registered voters approval of Governor Glenn Youngkin's job performance, a decline from 51% in the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll.
  • 39% of registered voters disapprove of Governor Youngkin's job performance, up from 38% in the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll.
  • 40% of registered voters approve of President Donald Trump's job performance, with 55% disapproving.
  • 49% of registered voters identify the rising cost of living as their top concern, followed by women's reproductive rights (14%) and immigration (14%).
  • 47% of independents report being undecided in the key races, reflecting the importance of persuading middle-of-the-road voters.

Sources:

  • "L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University".
  • "The Commonwealth Poll".