Ukraine Faces Record Drone and Missile Attacks as Russia Pursues Endgame

Strategic Insights -

Night by night, the blitz intensifies. Russian drones, decoys, cruise, and ballistic missiles are being launched in record numbers into Ukraine, with civilian casualties rising to 232 people in June, the highest monthly total in three years. A single city or location is increasingly targeted, straining Ukraine's defenses and raising questions about the country's ability to endure another winter of war.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukraine has faced a record number of drone and missile attacks, with 728 drones and 13 missiles launched on a single day, mostly at the western city of Lutsk.
  • Civilian casualties have risen to 232 people in June, the highest monthly total in three years.
  • Ukrainian air force data shows that more drones are getting through defenses, from 5% in March and April to between 15% and 20% in May and June.
  • Russia is using its Shahed drones more intelligently, analysts say, to open a path for faster and more dangerous cruise and ballistic missiles.
  • Production of Shahed drones has improved, with Russian factories in Izhevsk and Yelabuga producing 50kg explosive drones, costing between $50,000 to $100,000 each.
  • Ukrainian officials have been trying to restart efforts to lobby European powers to police the skies over the west of the country, with an initiative called Sky Shield proposing 120 fighter jets to engage in defensive air policing.
  • Western nations have shown no appetite for protecting Ukrainian airspace, fearing it would lead to a direct conflict between a Nato country and Russia.
  • The balance in the battle of the skies has tipped towards Russia, with experts warning that the Kremlin remains committed to its goals to have Ukraine surrender and capitulate.

Statistics:

  • 728 drones and 13 missiles were launched on a single day, mostly at the western city of Lutsk.
  • Civilian casualties have risen to 232 people in June, the highest monthly total in three years.
  • Ukrainian air force data shows that more drones are getting through defenses, from 5% in March and April to between 15% and 20% in May and June.
  • The cost of a single PAC-3 interceptor missile is around $4m.
  • Over 100 air targets have been shot down as part of the "Shahedoriz" project, a Ukrainian counter-drone effort.

Sources:

  • Watling, J. (2022, June). The Shahed problem: A military expert's analysis. Royal United Services Institute thinktank.
  • Bendett, S. (2022, June). Drones and missiles in the Russian-Iranian partnership. Centre for Naval Analyses thinktank.
  • Stepanenko, K. (2022, June). Ukraine's air defense challenges. Institute of the Study of War.
  • Sternenko, S. (2022, June). Shahedoriz project. Ukrainian fundraiser.
  • Zelenskyy, V. (2022, June). Ukraine's air defense efforts. President of Ukraine.
  • Google. (2022, June). Partnership with Ukraine to produce interceptor drones.