Tanzania's Descent into Electoral Authoritarianism: A Cry for Urgent Reforms

Strategic Insights -

As the October 2025 general elections in Tanzania approach, the country is fast descending into electoral authoritarianism, with the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party determined to extend its 30-year rule. The main opposition party, Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), has been disqualified from running, and its leader, Tundu Lissu, is in custody on treason charges, which carry the death penalty. The CCM has won all six elections since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1995, making it one of Africa's longest-ruling independent parties. The country's slide into authoritarianism has been accompanied by exclusion, censorship, electoral fraud, and violence against the opposition.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tanzania is approaching its October 2025 general elections with uncertainty, as the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been disqualified from running, and its leader, Tundu Lissu, is in custody on treason charges.
  • The ruling CCM party has won all six elections since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1995, making it one of Africa's longest-ruling independent parties.
  • The country's slide into authoritarianism has been accompanied by exclusion, censorship, electoral fraud, and violence against the opposition.
  • The EU and US have passed resolutions condemning Lissu's arrest and treason charges, but economic and strategic interests limit their actions.
  • Regional bodies like the EAC and SADC must call for free and fair elections in Tanzania and accreditation for their election observers who have been excluded from the upcoming polls.
  • Domestic observers should document election-related irregularities, as was done in Mozambique in 2024.
  • CHADEMA's push for electoral reforms has been undermined by other opposition parties' apparent alignment with CCM's approach, making them seem like ruling party puppets.

Statistics:

  • Tanzania has had six elections since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1995, with the CCM winning all of them.
  • In 2025, the country moved to the 'Not Free' category by Freedom House, signalling an authoritarian turn as political freedoms and rights decline.
  • The ruling party's vote share shrank to its lowest point ever in 2015, when John Magufuli was elected, with the opposition gaining in both the presidential and parliamentary polls.
  • In the 2020 general elections, Magufuli won the presidency by 84.4%, with CCM clinching 261 of the 264 parliamentary seats (98.7% of the vote).
  • In Zanzibar, CCM won 76.6% of the presidential ballots in 2020.

Sources:

  • [1] Nicodemus Minde, Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Nairobi, "Tanzania's Descent into Electoral Authoritarianism: A Cry for Urgent Reforms" (https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tanzanias-descent-into-electoral-authoritarianism-a-cry-for-urgent-reforms)
  • [2] Freedom House, "Freedom in the World 2025" (https://freedomhouse.org/country/tanzania)
  • [3] European Parliament, "Resolution on the situation in Tanzania, the arrest of Tundu Lissu and the election process" (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RC-10-2025-0260_EN.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
  • [4] Institute for Security Studies, "Tanzania Excludes EAC and SADC in Observers List" (https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/tanzania-excludes-eac-sadc-in-observers-list-october-29-polls-5138522)
  • [5] Daily News, "CCM Halts Internal Polls Meetings" (https://dailynews.co.tz/ccm-halts-internal-polls-meetings/)