Trump India Tariff Hike: US President Ratchets Up Pressure on New Delhi Over Russian Oil Imports

Strategic Insights -

New Delhi and Washington are yet to reach a trade deal, with differences over market access for American agricultural products among the key roadblocks. US President Donald Trump's latest attack on India over its substantial imports of Russian crude oil has raised tensions in the India-US relationship, with Trump threatening to "substantially" raise tariffs on New Delhi for profiting from exporting fuels derived from Russian oil.

Key Takeaways:

  • India's Russian oil imports, which form a bulk of Near Delhi's total crude oil imports, have emerged as an irritant in the India-US relationship amid Trump's growing frustration with Russia over the war in Ukraine.
  • India's Russian oil imports in July were at 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), down 24 per cent from June levels, and 23.5 per cent from volumes delivered in July of last year, according to latest tanker data from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
  • The share of Russian crude in India's oil import basket in July contracted notably to around 33.8 per cent from June's 44.5 per cent.
  • Indian refiners, led by public sector players, began cutting down on Russian oil imports much before Trump's announcement, with vessel tracking data showing significant decreases in July deliveries of Russian crude.
  • Trump's July 31 announcement of 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports from Russia has rattled Indian exporters, especially of low-margin products such as apparel and footwear, who have expressed fears of job losses due to increased tariffs.
  • China faces an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with the US, with the country already cutting prices to retain access to the US market and outcompete Indian goods.
  • The US has raised pressure on India, but exporters claim that Trump's criticism of India is unilateral and unfair, as China is the largest buyer of Russian oil, having imported $62.6 billion worth of Russian oil in 2024.

Statistics:

  • India's Russian oil imports in July 2025: 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • India's Russian oil imports in June 2025: 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • Share of Russian crude in India's oil import basket in July 2025: 33.8%
  • India's Russian oil imports in July 2024: 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • China's Russian oil imports in 2024: $62.6 billion
  • Tariff announced by Trump on Indian imports from Russia: 25%
  • Deadline for China to reach a durable tariff agreement with the US: August 12, 2025

Sources:

  • IE Online Media Services Pvt. Ltd., distributed by Contify.com
  • GTRI (Global Trade Research Institute)
  • Kpler (global real-time data and analytics provider)