South Africa's Genocide Case Against Israel: Expert Analysis and Timeline

Strategic Insights -

South Africa has filed a case against Israel with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, alleging that Israel is violating the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide through its actions in Gaza. The case has the potential to be a lengthy and complex one, with a final decision unlikely to be reached before 2028. International law scholar Magnus Killander explains the process and the various stages that the case will go through.

As the ICJ's procedures are lengthy and slow, the case is expected to drag on for several years. The court has set deadlines for both South Africa and Israel to submit their arguments, but these deadlines have already been extended once. The case is likely to reach the oral hearing stage in 2027, after which the judges will write the final judgment. The judgment will be hundreds of pages long and include separate opinions from the 16 judges.

The ICJ has a history of handling similar cases, including The Gambia v Myanmar, Bosnia and Herzegovina v Serbia and Montenegro, and Croatia v Serbia. However, the court has only held one state accountable for genocide so far. In its 2007 case, the ICJ found Croatia to have committed genocide, but the case had limited impact. A Bosnian Serb military leader, Ratko Mladić, was arrested in Serbia in 2011 and transferred to the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia as called for in the ICJ judgment.

Key Takeaways:

  • The ICJ case will likely reach the oral hearing stage in 2027, with a final decision not expected before 2028.
  • The case has the potential to be a lengthy and complex one, with multiple stages and deadlines to be met.
  • The ICJ has set deadlines for both South Africa and Israel to submit their arguments, including a deadline of 12 January 2026 for Israel's counter-memorials.
  • South Africa has not requested any additional provisional measures since the last ones were issued in May 2024.
  • Advisory proceedings provide another way to address the situation, with the UN general assembly requesting an advisory opinion on the obligations of Israel in relation to the presence and activities of the United Nations, other international organisations and third states in relation to the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
  • The ICJ has only held one state accountable for genocide so far, in its 2007 case against Croatia.
  • The main discussion in the final judgments in the Myanmar and Israel cases will likely be in relation to whether the mens rea requirement has been met.

Statistics:

  • The case is expected to take several years, with a final decision not expected before 2028.
  • The ICJ has set deadlines for both South Africa and Israel to submit their arguments, including a deadline of 28 October 2024 for South Africa's memorials and 12 January 2026 for Israel's counter-memorials.
  • The case has already been delayed once, with the deadline for Israel's counter-memorials extended from 28 July 2025 to 12 January 2026.
  • The ICJ has received requests to intervene from several states, including Nicaragua, Colombia, Libya, Mexico, Palestine, Spain, Türkiye, Chile, the Maldives, Bolivia, Ireland, Cuba, and Belize.
  • Only Nicaragua has revoked its request to intervene.
  • The ICJ has delivered advisory opinions on the issue of Palestine three times, including in 2004, 2023, and 2024.
  • The ICJ has a history of slow procedures, taking an average of 6-8 years to deliver a judgment.

Sources:

  • Magnus Killander, expert analysis, The Conversation Africa, 26 January 2024.
  • International Court of Justice, ICJ case against Israel, submitted in December 2023.
  • UN General Assembly, Request for Advisory Opinion, 23 December 2024.
  • ICJ, Advisory Opinion on the Legal Consequences Arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, 19 January 2023.
  • ICJ, Advisory Opinion on Israel's Construction of a Wall Separating Israel from the Occupied Territories, 9 July 2004.
  • ICJ, Case No. ICJ Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina v. Republic of Yugoslavia, 2007.
  • ICJ, Case No. ICJ v. The Gambia v Myanmar, 2022.