Bolivia Heads to the Polls Amid Economic Crisis and Divided Left

Strategic Insights -

Bolivians will elect a new president and members of the Congress in a crucial vote, marking a potential end to the almost 20-year reign of the governing socialists. The election comes at a time of crisis, with annual inflation nearing 25% and shortages of dollars and fuel affecting the country. According to the latest August Ipsos MORI survey, the right-wing opposition is leading the leftist coalition, MAS, by about 10 percent.

Key Takeaways:

  • Eight presidential candidates are vying for the top spot, including Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga and Samuel Doria Mediana, who are neck-and-neck in the latest polling survey.
  • The incumbent Movement for Socialism, or MAS, faces the possibility of defeat for the first time in almost two decades, with a divided left and a strong right-wing opposition.
  • Former President Evo Morales, barred from running, has asked his followers to cast invalid votes, while his successor, outgoing socialist President Luis Arce, has opted out of the race.
  • The two frontrunners, Quiroga and Doria Medina, have pledged significant changes to Bolivia's big-state economic model, including halting inflation and bringing back fuel and dollars within 100 days.
  • The election is the first time in almost two decades that polling indicates Bolivia's incumbent MAS could face defeat, with a divided left and a strong right-wing opposition.
  • Morales has been holed up in his tropical stronghold, where he still leads the coca growers union, and has denied allegations of statutory rape.
  • The election is also the first time in almost two decades that polling indicates Bolivia's incumbent MAS could face defeat.
  • A run-off will take place on October 19 if no candidate wins an outright majority, and officials assume office on November 8.
  • Bolivia is struggling through its worst crisis in a generation, marked by critical shortages of dollars and fuel.

Statistics:

  • Annual inflation in Bolivia is nearing 25% (source: unnamed).
  • Gas revenues have fallen from a peak of $6.1bn in 2013 to $1.6bn last year (source: unnamed).
  • The number of presidential candidates in the running is 8 (source: unnamed).
  • The latest polling survey indicates the right-wing opposition is leading the leftist coalition by about 10% (source: Ipsos MORI).
  • The population of Bolivia has not been mentioned in the source material and thus is not included.

Sources:

  • https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/8/14/will-evo-morales-sink-the-lefts-hopes-in-bolivias-presidential-race