Bolivia's Leftist Party on Brink of Collapse as Election Looms

Strategic Insights -

The Casa Grande del Pueblo, a symbol of Bolivia's leftist reinvention, stands precariously close to collapse. The Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) party, once a champion of Indigenous rights and the working class, faces a stark reality: it may disappear entirely in Bolivia's most open election in 20 years. As the rightwing ascends, Mas's former president, Evo Morales, finds himself excluded from the ballot paper due to term limits, and the party's current candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, polls at under 2%. Meanwhile, rightwing candidates Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga vie for the presidency, promising to liberalize the economy and cut public spending. With the economy on the brink of collapse, and inflation already at 17%, the stakes could not be higher.

Key Takeaways:

  • Mas, Bolivia's successful leftwing party, may disappear entirely in the upcoming election, with its current candidate polling at under 2%.
  • Rightwing candidates, including Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, have about 20% to 25% of voting intention, setting the stage for a potential rightward shift.
  • The economy has been the overriding issue of the campaign, with both Medina and Quiroga promising to liberalize the economy and cut public spending.
  • Mas's economic mismanagement led to a crippling foreign exchange shortage in March 2023, exacerbating the country's economic woes.
  • Evo Morales, the charismatic coca farmer turned president, is excluded from the ballot paper due to term limits, dealing a significant blow to the party.
  • The "pink tide" of leftist governments in Latin America, which once included Morales, is all but over, as Mas faces an existential threat.

Statistics:

  • Polls show Mas candidate Eduardo del Castillo polling at under 2%, which would mean the party losing its legal status.
  • Rightwing candidates Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga have about 20% to 25% of voting intention.
  • Bolivia's economy has struggled to recover from a crippling foreign exchange shortage in March 2023, with inflation already at 17%.
  • The country's economy has been hit hard by Mas's long-running economic mismanagement.
  • In 2019, Morales won a disputed election, but was forced to resign after an interim government was established.

Sources:

  • Carlos Arze Vargas of Cedla, a thinktank, quoted by The Guardian.
  • Reuters: "Bolivia to hold runoff election in October amid economic crisis".
  • Bloomberg: "Bolivia's Economy Plunges Into Crisis as Election Looms".
  • The Guardian: "Bolivia's leftwing party on brink of collapse as election looms".