Bolivia's Right-Wing Candidates Advance to Run-Off After Toppling Leftist Rule

Strategic Insights -

Right-wing Senator Rodrigo Paz and former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga have emerged as the top two candidates in Bolivia's presidential election, ending two decades of leftist rule. The election was marred by the country's worst economic crisis in a generation, with voters deserting the ruling socialists in droves. Annual inflation hit almost 25 percent in July, and the country is struggling with a critical shortage of fuel and dollars.

The run-off between Paz and Quiroga will bring an end to 20 years of socialist rule, which began in 2005 with the election of Evo Morales. Morales, an Indigenous coca farmer, was elected on a radical anti-capitalist platform. However, under his rule, the country's economy has stagnated, and Bolivia has struggled with a shortage of foreign exchange.

Key Takeaways:

  • Right-wing Senator Rodrigo Paz secured over 31 percent of the vote in the first round of elections, with former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga following closely behind with around 27 percent.
  • Millionaire businessman Samuel Doria Medina trailed in third with 19.5-20.2 percent, far ahead of the main leftist candidate, Senate president Andronico Rodriguez.
  • The election was dominated by Bolivia's worst economic crisis in a generation, with annual inflation hitting almost 25 percent in July.
  • The country's ruling socialists have been deserting voters in droves, and the ruling party has been criticized for its handling of the economy.
  • Former president Quiroga has vowed to slash public spending, open the country to foreign investment, and boost ties with the United States.
  • Quiroga has also promised to deliver "capitalism for all" and reduce taxes, while his opponent Paz has campaigned on a populist programme of fighting corruption.
  • Many Bolivians cited the economic reforms implemented by President Javier Milei as a model for stabilizing their country's economy.
  • Morales, who was barred from standing for a fourth term, has cast a long shadow over the campaign and has threatened mass protests if the right returns to power.

Statistics:

  • 25%: Annual inflation rate in July
  • 31%: Percentage of vote secured by Rodrigo Paz
  • 27%: Percentage of vote secured by Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga
  • 20 years: Length of socialist rule in Bolivia under Evo Morales
  • $6.1 billion: Peak gas revenue in 2013
  • $1.6 billion: Gas revenue in 2022
  • 19.5-20.2%: Percentage of vote secured by Samuel Doria Medina

Sources:

  • Ipsos pollsters
  • Captura pollsters
  • AFP
  • German Institute for Global and Area Studies
  • Doc.afp.com, part of the BLOX Digital Content Exchange