Bolivia's Presidential Election: A Major Upset in the Making

Strategic Insights -

The outcome of Bolivia's first-round presidential vote marked a significant upset in the country's political panorama, spelling the end of two decades of governance by the Movement for Socialism (MAS) under Presidents Evo Morales and Luis Arce. Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira emerged as the top finisher, winning 32 percent of the vote, and will face ex-President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga in the second round. Meanwhile, the MAS presidential candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, finished sixth, and the party scored just one congressional seat, marking a dramatic electoral collapse.

Key Takeaways:

  • Rodrigo Paz Pereira, the son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora, won the first-round presidential vote with 1.6 million votes, despite polling at under 10 percent.
  • Paz's campaign focused on addressing Bolivia's economic crisis, shifting from a state-centered strategy to one that would see splitting public funding 50-50 between the federal government and regional governments.
  • The collapse of the ruling party, MAS, was dramatic, with the party's candidate finishing sixth and scoring just one congressional seat, down from its previous majority in Congress.
  • The presidential runoff on October 19 will be Bolivia's first, thanks to an option introduced in the 2009 Constitution.
  • The legislature is expected to be fragmented, with at least six parties represented in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, and no party is expected to hold a majority.
  • Senator Paz's running mate, Edman Lara, a former police officer, played a key role in the campaign, highlighting the campaign's anti-corruption stances and leveraging social media.
  • Paz won key departments in Bolivia's highlands, which were previously strongholds of the MAS party.
  • The endorsement of third-place finisher and businessman Samuel Doria Medina may give Paz a boost in the runoff.

Statistics:

  • 6.5 million votes were cast in the first round, making it one of the highest turnout elections in Bolivia's history.
  • 20 percent of the electorate, or 1.2 million voters, nullified their ballots, a move encouraged by former President Morales.
  • Paz won 1.6 million votes, while his runoff opponent, Quiroga, received 1.8 million votes.
  • The MAS party scored just one congressional seat, down from its previous 75 seats in the current legislative period.
  • The PDC party will control about one-third of the Chamber of Deputies, or 45 out of 130 seats.

Sources:

  • Americas Society/Council of the Americas (AS/COA), "Bolivia's Presidential Election: A Major Upset in the Making"
  • Chase Harrison, AS/COA, "Who is Rodrigo Paz? What happened to the ruling party? And what is the legislature's new breakdown?"