SpaceX Starship 10 Launch: A Potential Game-Changer for Space Launch Costs

Strategic Insights -

SpaceX is poised to attempt a historic launch today with the Starship 10, aiming to deploy dummy versions of Starlink Version 3 satellites. If successful, this could lead to a significant reduction in launch costs, potentially five times lower than current estimates, even if the booster and upper stage are lost after each payload deployment. The Starship Version 3, expected to fly by late 2025, boasts improved engines and stretched tanks, capable of carrying payloads of up to 200 tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), 250 tons with partial reuse, and 300 tons in expendable mode.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Starship 10 launch aims to deploy dummy Starlink Version 3 satellites, potentially reducing launch costs by 5 times, even with booster and upper stage losses.
  • Starship Version 3, scheduled for late 2025, features improved engines and stretched tanks, enabling payloads of up to 200 tons (200,000 kg) to LEO, with reuse rates impacting costs.
  • Internal estimates suggest that launch costs with Starship could drop to $200 per kilogram, despite the possibility of losing the booster and upper stage.
  • Detailed production scaling, reuse rates, fuel, and operations estimates contribute to the forecasted costs.
  • This would enable the launch of over 100 Version 3 Starlink satellites per launch, a tenfold increase compared to the Falcon 9's 20-ton payload capacity.
  • Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches currently cost around $1,000 per kilogram, while SpaceX's ability to recover the Super Heavy booster decreases costs to $80 per kilogram.
  • Achieving full reuse of both stages and a high launch cadence could lead to a cost of $10 per kilogram, 100 times lower than the Falcon 9.

Statistics:

  • $200 per kilogram estimated launch cost, even with booster and upper stage losses
  • $1,000 per kilogram for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches
  • $80 per kilogram when recovering the booster but expending the upper stage
  • Potential to launch over 100 Version 3 Starlink satellites per launch
  • 10-fold increase in payload capacity compared to the Falcon 9

Sources:

  • Brian Wang's blog, Nextbigfuture.com (no date)
  • https://nextbigfuture.com/2022/06/spacex-starship-10-will-try-again-to.html