Mamdani's Slight Lead Over Cuomo May Not Be Enough in New York Mayoral Race

Strategic Insights -

As the 2025 New York mayoral election approaches, a new poll by The Times/Siena shows Zohran Mamdani with a slight edge over Andrew Cuomo among likely voters. However, Cuomo leads among all registered voters, and the race may be tighter than expected if Curtis Sliwa and Mayor Eric Adams remain candidates. The poll also highlights the unpredictability of low-turnout elections and the potential for a high-turnout turnout in November.

Key Takeaways:

  • Mamdani leads Cuomo by four percentage points, 48 to 44, among likely voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
  • Cuomo leads Mamdani among all registered voters, 46-45.
  • Mamdani's lead among likely voters is largely due to his support among those who voted in the 2025 primary, who are more likely to vote in general elections.
  • Mamdani's supporters are more likely to say they intend to vote, with a six-point lead over Cuomo among those who say they're "almost certain to vote" or "very likely to vote."
  • The poll's text-message approach did not yield significant differences in the survey results, with majorities under 1 percentage point.
  • A hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo would be much closer if everyone voted, with Mamdani leading, 55 to 36.
  • Curtis Sliwa and Mayor Eric Adams's presence in the race could potentially change the dynamics of the election and make it more competitive.
  • Four years ago, only about 21 percent of voters turned out in a New York mayoral election, and a close race could lead to a higher turnout than usual.

Statistics:

  • 48% of likely voters support Mamdani in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, compared to 44% support for Cuomo.
  • Cuomo leads among all registered voters, 46 to 45.
  • 61% of Mamdani's supporters say they're "almost certain to vote" or "very likely to vote."
  • 21% of voters turned out in a New York mayoral election four years ago.
  • Cuomo leads by 21 points among those who say they're somewhat or less likely to vote.
  • The poll's text-message approach did not yield significant differences in the survey results, with majorities under 1 percentage point.

Sources:

  • The Times/Siena poll, not dated.
  • Victor J. Blue for The New York Times, not dated.
  • "Siena College's 2025 NY mayor andNYC council survey data", not dated.
  • "More Than a Dozen Democrats to Run for NYC Mayor", not dated.