Trump's H-1B Visa Changes: A Deathblow to India's IT Industry?

Strategic Insights -

The Trump administration has announced significant changes to the H-1B visa programme, which has been a major source of employment and economic growth for Indians. The new visa fees of $100,000, which is more than the median annual salary of a fresh H-1B visa holder, effectively kills the programme. This move will disproportionately affect India, which has received 60% of all H-1B visas issued over the past 28 years.

Key Takeaways:

  • The new H-1B visa fees of $100,000 is more than the median annual salary of a fresh H-1B visa holder and more than 80% of the average annual salary of all H-1B visa holders.
  • India stands to lose the most from the new H-1B visa changes, as it has received 60% of all H-1B visas issued over the past 28 years.
  • The new regime will make it extremely unlikely for applications to be made, as the visa fees will be higher than the annual salary of the employee for whom the visa is being sought.
  • In 2024, Indians received an overwhelming 71% of the total 399,395 H-1B visas approved, followed by China with 11.7%.
  • India's share of H-1B visas peaked in 2022 at 81% and decreased to 69% by 2024.
  • No other country's share of non-immigrant visas issued in the 1997-2024 period goes beyond 6%, making India's reliance on H-1B visas unique.
  • Infosys and TCS, two of India's outsourcing and business-process giants, had more approved H-1B beneficiaries in FY 2024 alone than the Philippines, making them significantly impacted by the new regime.

Statistics:

  • 4.1 million H-1B visas were issued in 28 years, with 2.5 million or 60% of them issued to Indians.
  • India's share of H-1B visas has been almost thrice that of the other nine countries in the top ten for the 1997-2024 period.
  • In FY 2024, Infosys had 8,137 approved H-1B beneficiaries and TCS had 5,272.
  • Certified labour condition applications (LCAs) show that many Indian employees' annual pay will be lower than the proposed $100,000 fee.
  • AI start-ups like OpenAI and Anthropic offer average pay packets of north of $300,000, making the $100,000 fee for an H-1B visa not a drop in the bucket for high-tech employers.

Sources:

  • US President Donald Trump's announcement on the H-1B visa changes
  • The Financial Times
  • US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) 2025 report
  • Bureau of Consular Affairs of the US Department of State data on visa issuances by nationality from 1997 to 2024
  • HT's analysis of certified labour condition applications (LCAs) filed in the third quarter of 2024-25
  • Infosys and TCS annual reports
  • OpenAI and Anthropic annual reports