Tornado Watch Issued for Northwest Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma

Strategic Insights -

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify in the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the potential for a strong tornado. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch Number 618, in effect from 305 PM CDT until 1000 PM CDT, for portions of Northwest into North-Central Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma. The watch area is approximately 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Muskogee, Oklahoma to 45 miles south southeast of Flippin, Arkansas.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Tornado Watch Number 618 has been issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for a large area in Northwest Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma, covering approximately 60 miles north and south of a line from Muskogee, OK to Flippin, AR.
  • The watch area is under threat from scattered thunderstorms that are forecast to develop and intensify, with a strong tornado possible in the area.
  • The primary threats associated with these thunderstorms include a few tornadoes and intense tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, large hail, and isolated very large hail events.
  • The risk for damaging gusts is expected to peak during the evening when upscale growth into a thunderstorm cluster is forecast.
  • The tornado watch area has a moderate probability of 2 or more tornadoes, with a moderate probability of 1 or more strong EF2-EF5 tornadoes.
  • The watch area also has a moderate probability of 10 or more severe wind events and a moderate probability of 1 or more wind events exceeding 65 knots.
  • In addition, there is a moderate probability of 10 or more severe hail events and a moderate probability of 1 or more hailstones exceeding 2 inches.

Statistics:

  • The watch area is approximately 60 miles north and south by 100 miles east and west, covering a large area in Northwest Arkansas and Eastern Oklahoma.
  • The watch is in effect from 305 PM CDT until 1000 PM CDT, with a duration of 6.5 hours.
  • The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a total of 618 Tornado Watches in 2025, with 123 of them issued in the past 30 days.
  • The watch area has a moderate probability of 30% to 40% for each of the specified severe weather events.

Sources:

  • NWS Storm Prediction Center
  • NOAA Weather Service
  • Tornado Watch Number 618 (NWS Storm Prediction Center, 2025)