Canada on Brink of Losing Measles Elimination Status Due to Waning Vaccination Rates and Disinformation

Strategic Insights -

Canadian health experts, armed with binders of information on the prolonged measles outbreak, are set to travel to Mexico City in November to meet with the Measles and Rubella Elimination Regional Monitoring and Re-Verification Commission (RVC), which works with the World Health Organization. The country is likely to lose its elimination status, having been free of endemic measles for 27 years but now facing an outbreak that has infected more than 5,000 others since last October. Canada's chain of homegrown transmission would have to be broken by October 27 to retain its elimination designation. Natasha Crowcroft, vice-president of infectious diseases and vaccination programs at the Public Health Agency of Canada, has said it would take "a miracle" for Canada to cling to its status.

Key Takeaways:

  • The prolonged measles outbreak has infected over 5,000 people in Canada since last October, with cases reported in every province except Newfoundland and Labrador.
  • The hardest-hit provinces are Ontario and Alberta, which have combined to make up 86% of the country's cases.
  • The outbreak has put pressure on emergency departments across the country, with hospitals in hard-hit areas forced to isolate infected patients and implement protocols to prevent further transmission.
  • Shrinking vaccination rates, largely in the Mennonite community, have allowed measles to spread more easily, with only 79% of Canadians fully immunized against measles.
  • The Public Health Agency of Canada has data showing there were 752 cases in 2011, 418 in 2014, and roughly 200 in both 2000 and 2015, with most other years having less than 100 cases.
  • The WHO's Americas region, which includes Canada, lost its measles elimination status in 2016 due to outbreaks in Venezuela and Brazil, but recovered in 2018 after countries interrupted transmission.
  • Experts warn that the conditions for the current outbreak are due to complacency after decades of relatively few measles cases, the rise of vaccine misinformation and disinformation, and disruptions to vaccine schedules due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistics:

  • 5,000+ people infected since last October
  • 86% of cases in Ontario and Alberta
  • 79% of Canadians fully immunized against measles
  • 752 cases in 2011
  • 418 cases in 2014
  • 200+ cases in 2000 and 2015
  • 6 times more transmissible than COVID-19
  • 12 times more transmissible than influenza

Sources:

  • The Globe and Mail
  • World Health Organization
  • Public Health Agency of Canada
  • Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)
  • University of Toronto's Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases
  • McMaster University