Disrupting Ryan White Services Could Sharply Increase HIV Incidence in US Cities

Strategic Insights -

Research has shown that disrupting services provided by the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program could lead to a significant increase in HIV infections in the United States. According to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine in 2025, ending Ryan White services in July 2025 could result in 75,436 additional infections through 2030, a 49% increase. This projection is based on simulations of epidemics in 31 high-burden cities across the US.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program provides care for over half of people with HIV in the United States.
  • Ending Ryan White services in July 2025 could result in 75,436 additional HIV infections through 2030, a 49% increase.
  • Interruptions of 18 and 42 months could lead to 19% and 38% more infections, respectively.
  • A 'conservative' analysis with lower simulated loss of suppression projected 34,051 excess infections.
  • Disrupting Ryan White services could sharply increase HIV incidence, highlighting their critical public health value.
  • The researchers used a compartmental HIV transmission model to simulate epidemics and Ryan White service use.
  • The model was calibrated to surveillance data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and program reports.

Statistics:

  • 75,436 additional HIV infections through 2030 if Ryan White services end in July 2025.
  • 49% increase in HIV infections through 2030 if Ryan White services end in July 2025 (95% credible interval: 12% to 86%).
  • 19% increase in HIV infections if Ryan White services are interrupted for 18 months.
  • 38% increase in HIV infections if Ryan White services are interrupted for 42 months.
  • 34,051 excess infections in a 'conservative' analysis with lower simulated loss of suppression.
  • 31 US cities simulated in the study.
  • 2025 to 2030: the time period of the simulation study.

Sources:

  • NewsRx. Studies from Johns Hopkins University Have Provided New Data on HIV/AIDS (The Potential Impact of Ending the Ryan White Hiv/aids Program On Hiv Incidence: a Simulation Study In 31 Us Cities). AIDS Weekly. October 13, 2025; p 174.
  • Fojo, A. T., et al. "The Potential Impact of Ending the Ryan White Hiv/aids Program On Hiv Incidence: a Simulation Study In 31 Us Cities." Annals of Internal Medicine, 2025.